U.S. crude output is now projected to grow by just 160,000 barrels per day in 2025—slower than previously expected—as unstable oil prices weigh on drilling activity, the Energy Information Administration said Tuesday. Production is expected to hold steady in 2026.
Rig counts remain near four-year lows, Bloomberg writes, and producers have drawn down inventories of pre-drilled wells. The number of drilled but uncompleted wells dropped to 5,291 in June, the lowest since records began in 2013—suggesting limited ability to quickly ramp up supply, even if prices rise.
Some producers briefly capitalized on a price spike during a U.S.-Iran standoff, triggering a wave of hedging “to lock in higher prices.” But that premium faded quickly when Tehran backed off threats to energy infrastructure.
Looking ahead, the EIA expects global inventory builds will pressure prices further, with Brent crude averaging $58 per barrel in 2026—down from current levels near $70.
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