The possible impact of climate change legislation makes forecasting the near future of the Louisiana and U.S. economies difficult, economist Loren Scott says. “There’s so much stuff coming out of Washington, D.C., that is anti-growth,” says Scott, who was they keynote speaker at today’s Urban Land Institute seminar. For example, new regulations included in proposed cap-and-trade legislation could cost ExxonMobil’s Baton Rouge refinery $1.65 billion a year, according to an industry study. And Baton Rouge could see big job losses in state government in the next couple of budget years because of projected deficits. On the upside, construction remains strong across the city and state. “Construction activity in our state is off-the-charts good,” Scott says. Baton Rouge has added jobs even during the national recession, but Scott says he expects job growth to flatten out at the end of the year.
Speaking at the seminar, which was held to discuss real estate investing, Scott says he expects new housing starts, home sales and auto sales to improve slowly because of tighter credit. But inflation should not be a serious problem, in part because Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is as much an inflation hawk as his predecessor, Alan Greenspan.—David Jacobs
