Business economists are more pessimistic about their firms’ future sales and profits than they were last fall—and more of them predict slower economic growth, according to a new survey by the National Association for Business Economics.
At the same time, The Associated Press reports the majority of economists surveyed said their firms plan to raise wages in the January-March quarter. That is the largest proportion that expects to raise pay since mid-2014.
Aside from the planned pay rise, the survey paints a mostly gloomy view of the economy at the start of 2016. Fewer than half the economists expect sales at their firms to rise in the first quarter, the smallest proportion since January 2015. And nearly 20% expect profits to fall, the most in more than a year.
For the first time in three years, more than 25% of the economists forecast that growth will slip below 2% over the next year. As recently as April, 30% expected growth would top 3% in the following 12 months. That figure fell to just 4% in the current survey.
The survey was conducted from Dec. 17 through Jan. 5, mostly before the big stock market drops that have occurred since the year began, and 148 economists responded.
