Editor’s note: This story has been corrected since its original publication. Nationally, there are 93 million registered voters, not billion, and Democratic participation in the Illinois primary increased by 119%, not 113%. Daily Report regrets the errors.
Though the Republicans could lose control of both houses of Congress in the fall midterm elections due to a “Democratic wave” sweeping the country, one local pollster predicts the wave won’t crash down on state races in Louisiana.
“Given that Republicans have taken some time to become the dominant party, I’m not expecting the Democratic wave I see happening nationally to happen here in any way, shape or form,” John Couvillon, owner of political consulting firm JMC Analytics, told the Baton Rouge Press Club this afternoon.
In the Louisiana Legislature, there are 33 legislators in the House and 16 in the Senate who are term limited and can’t run to keep their seats in 2019, most of whom are Republican. Couvillon anticipates Republicans to be able to pick up three to five seats in the House, and either break even or pick up one seat in the Senate.
Couvillon says while the number of seats opening during the next election is substantial, there will also be a large term-limited class in 2027, when 39 seats are expected to open.
Looking at a breakdown of registered voters across the U.S., Couvillon says the national Democratic wave isn’t visible. Nationally, out of 93 million registered voters, there are 1 million less Democrats registered, 570,000 less Republicans and an uptick of 416,000 Independent voters since Donald Trump took office in January 2017.
The wave was seen however in the in the March Texas and Illinois primaries, which, compared to the 2014 midterm, saw Democratic participation increase by 119%, while Republican participation only increased by 4%.
Retirements will also be a contributing factor to the flipping of the Congressional chambers. While 17 Democrats are retiring, which Couvillon says is a typical amount, 39 Republicans are retiring.
“I think it is certainly part of the dialogue that Republicans could lose control of the U.S. Senate in addition to the U.S. House this fall,” he says.
