The share of Louisianans who say they plan to vote for Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle or are leaning toward him as their choice for the state’s next governor are on the rise, while support for Vitter appears to be waning. That’s according to the latest monthly independent poll from Florida-based Market Research Insight, obtained by Daily Report.
In its July poll, which was conducted July 27-31 and has a 4% margin of error, 16% of respondents said they would vote for Angelle if the election were today, while another 9% said they were leaning toward him. When those figures are combined, Angelle’s 24% total leads all other major candidates in the race. In the MRI poll released in June, 11% said they would vote for Angelle and 4% said they were leaning toward him.
The share of respondents who said they would vote for Sen. David Vitter, meanwhile, tumbled from 23% in June to 15% in July. The share of those who said they were leaning toward Vitter rose in July to 7%, up from 5% the month previous. Vitter’s combined 22% support in the July poll trailed only Angelle’s total.
Rep. John Bel Edwards, the leading Democrat in the race, also saw his numbers decline between June and July in the MRI poll. The share of respondents who said they’d vote for Edwards fell one percentage point to 14% in July, while the share of those who said they were leaning toward him fell from 12% in June to 6% in July. His combined figure of 20% was third among the candidates.
Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne of Baton Rouge was last in June and July MRI poll, but his numbers edged up slightly in July among those who said they were leaning toward him. The 8% of respondents who said they planned to vote for Dardenne was unchanged from June to July, while the share of those leaning toward him rose from 1% in June to 4% in July.
While the poll notes the “major change in July” was the decline in Vitter’s support, it also notes this: “Of course, the August survey could show a change in the opposite direction.”
The poll also observes that “critical changes” in the numbers typically come two to three months prior to the primary, which is slated to take place on Oct. 24. If no single candidate receives a majority of the vote during the primary, a runoff election will be held on Nov. 21.
And with 21% of respondents saying in the July MRI poll that they remain undecided on any candidate—and a number of other candidates still thought to be considering jumping in the race, including The Advocate owner John Georges—a clear frontrunner has not yet emerged in the governor’s race.
“My polls show that I’d definitely make the runoff,” Georges told Gannett Louisiana earlier this week. “I’m polling very well as a private citizen, and I don’t know if I want to ruin that by jumping into the election.”
See the complete July MRI poll results.
—Steve Sanoski
