From a purely political perspective, Jeremy Alford says the most entertaining legislative issue to watch over the next few months will be the Legislature itself.
“It has already been an interesting few weeks, with the House installing a Republican speaker against the wishes of a Democratic governor and an almost entirely new leadership roster of chairmen appointed in the Senate,” Alford writes in his latest column. “That lends an air of unpredictability to the upcoming sessions, especially when coupled with the loss of institutional knowledge.”
Alford notes that there are 29 freshmen legislators in the House, of which two are former representatives making a comeback, and 11 new members in the Senate, including four who are transfers from the lower chamber. That makes for 34 legislators total who are clean slates, with no voting records in Baton Rouge yet.
“There are unchartered political angles along the rails of the House and Senate, too,” he writes. “The Louisiana Association of Business and Industry has ventured outside of its comfort zone by tackling fundamental budget issues and likely will be involved on that front at an unprecedented level. The Committee of 100, which describes itself as a business roundtable group, has also sought out new levels of influence in the process for the coming sessions.”
Alford says business interests of all stripes are looking to engage more than usual and each one has a single number in mind: 70.
“Reaching that many votes in the House for constitutional amendments and certain tax measures will be a recurring theme over the next few months—probably the next four years,” he writes. “No one knows how, or if, that threshold will be reached. The lower chamber is looking increasingly fragmented as even the most traditional factions are becoming splintered; Republicans are divided into several different groups, and Democrats have allowed themselves to become divided, too, following this month’s internal election for speaker.”
Looming over the entire Legislature like storm clouds are a $750 million shortfall for the current budget year and a $1.9 billion gap for the next fiscal year.
“What kind of appetite will the Legislature have for tough decisions? Will it be willing to increase taxes?” Alford wonders. “That sounds unlikely, but then again taxes were temporarily increased last year—during an election year.”
Jeremy Alford publishes LaPolitics Weekly, a newsletter on Louisiana politics, at LaPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter, or on Facebook. He can be reached at JJA@LaPolitics.com.
