At this very moment, says Jeremy Alford, there are some 123 Louisiana legislators wondering if their votes on taxes, exemptions, incentives and the budget will do enough damage to ban their re-entry to the House and Senate next year.
“That’s because the fall primaries are only five months away,” Alford writes in his latest column. “A very small handful will actually be on the ballot for other nonlegislative offices, but they too are wondering if their votes and quotes will be used against them.”
Some lawmakers are definitely voting their conscience, regardless of political outcomes, Alford acknowledges.
“But for others, it means everything,” he writes. “Re-election—possibly more than any other factor—is driving the decision-making at the Capitol these days.”
Only 21 lawmakers are term-limited from running for the same office, Alford notes. While a few are angling to stay in politics, he says the majority enjoys a freedom that their re-electable colleagues can only dream of wielding.
“Right now I’m your worst nightmare,” term-limited Sen. Robert Adley, R-Benton, recently told an audience visiting the Capitol. “I’m a term-limited senator. I can do any damn thing I want.”
“There have definitely been some tough decisions to make in advancing a budget with a $1.6 billion hole,” Alford writes. “But it would have been much tougher had lawmakers decided to craft a long-term solution rather than one that expires almost as soon as it starts.”
The House kicked off the process by passing 11 revenue-generating bills to the Senate, creating money for the next fiscal year largely on the backs of business.
“Granted, the business lobby is a powerful friend—and enemy—to have when facing re-election, but at the end of the day they’re political. Which means they can be reasoned with,” Alford writes. “Which is why the House is preparing to move a bill soon to either phase out or repeal the corporate franchise tax. Lawmakers hope that will help them get back in the good graces of business.”
What you won’t see lawmakers doing, Alford says, is passing legislation that makes the average citizen pay significantly more in taxes.
“That would be a death wish for those on the fall ballot,” he writes. “Moreover, they know the issue would be a nonstarter, even as some say all taxpayers should help shoulder the burden of such a massive deficit.”
Jeremy Alford publishes LaPolitics Weekly, a newsletter on Louisiana politics, at LaPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter, or on Facebook. He can be reached at JJA@LaPolitics.com.
