When Florida-based Market Research Insight released new polling data on Louisiana’s governor’s race late Friday afternoon in the form of a PowerPoint presentation, it sent reporters scrambling, donors reeling and the campaigns spinning, says Jeremy Alford.
“Within a short 12-hour period, a daily newspaper had to rewrite its coverage to clarify the findings, three candidates claimed the first place position and the pollster was both cheered and vilified,” Alford writes in his latest column. “In other words, the race for governor has officially gotten underway after more than a year of quiet posturing and speculation.”
The poll, paid for by businessman John Georges and a group of other subscribers, suggested U.S. Sen. David Vitter was losing ground following months of being the proverbial favorite.
Kyle Ruckert, Vitter’s campaign manager, sent out an email claiming the poll originated in “fantasy-land.”
“Team Vitter also called upon Treasurer John Kennedy, who in turn referred to the campaign as his ‘good friends’ via email before touting two competing polls, from Triumph Campaigns and MarblePort, that showed a ‘real strong lead’ for the senior senator,” Alford writes. “It’s an early sign that the treasurer may become a go-to surrogate for Vitter in times of distress in the weeks to come.”
Meanwhile, the campaign of Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle jumped on the results from the Market Research Insight poll immediately, since the raw numbers showed him leading the race and nearly in a statistical tie for first (when the margin of error is plugged in) with Vitter and state Rep. John Bel Edwards. When the numbers were redistributed to account for historic voting patterns, Edwards, the lone Democrat, took the top spot, with Angelle and Vitter tied for the second runoff position.
“Angelle’s staff not only reached out to reporters to brag, but also to donors in a very quick fashion. If nothing else, Angelle should get a fundraising boost from the MRI survey, conducted by pollster Verne Kennedy,” writes Alford. “There will be more fallout about the poll and its methodology in the days to come, since like all polls on this level there is skepticism. But it confirms what insiders already knew—that Angelle has been moving. Or as former Congressman Charlie Melancon might say, he’s got the ‘Big Meaux,’ or, in non-Cajun tongue, momentum.”
Jeremy Alford publishes LaPolitics Weekly, a newsletter on Louisiana politics, at LaPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter, or on Facebook. He can be reached at JJA@LaPolitics.com.
