The Oct. 14 elections will produce more than just winners and losers in Louisiana, says Jeremy Alford.
“They also generate new insights into the modern political landscape, foreshadow policy debates to come and offer us an opportunity to take the temperature of the electorate on any number of issues,” Alford writes in his latest column.
To that end, Alford says, there are four key questions that will likely all be answered before, during and after voters walk into the polls this fall: Will the campaigns be televised? Does anyone care? Will there be a legislative backlash? And could this be the death of gas tax chatter?
“Of course they will be televised,” Alford says of the first question. “But probably not at the levels we’ve seen in recent election cycles. Just take a look at the current costs for getting television commercials on the air.”
To purchase 1,000 points per week on TV this cycle a candidate would have to spend, on average, about $100,000 in the New Orleans market and $95,000 per week in Baton Rouge, Alford says. Every 100 points of airtime purchased by a candidate for their commercial will in theory result in each average viewer in that particular market seeing the ad at least once.
“That’s all to say the media side of this election cycle—particularly in the race for treasurer—might not look like the traditional statewide campaigns we’re familiar with. It may even be another month or so until we actually see any serious television outreach,” Alford writes.
As to whether or not anyone is paying attention to upcoming elections, Alford notes that Secretary of State Tom Schedler is aiming low—very low—in terms of turnout predictions for the October ballot.
“I don’t think you even hit 20 percent,” Schedler recently said. The exception could be New Orleans, he added, where there’s a competitive race for mayor and for various seats on the city council.
Rarely does an election cycle go by without a member of the Legislature running for another office, and Alford says this year is no exception.
“In all there are two representatives and two senators seeking positions outside of the Legislature on the October ballot,” he writes.
And as for the gas tax chatter, Alford says there are some vestiges of the ongoing debate on the October ballot.
“The third and final proposed constitutional amendment voters will weigh in on would create safeguards for the proceeds of any new tax levied on gas,” he writes. “So if lawmakers decide to hike the gas tax in the future, the resulting dollars could only be used for construction, maintenance and a few other purposes—if the amendment is approved.”
Jeremy Alford publishes LaPolitics Weekly, a newsletter on Louisiana politics, at LaPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter, or on Facebook. He can be reached at JJA@LaPolitics.com.
