Though most Louisiana voters aren’t paying much attention to the fall congressional races—during which six representatives will be sent to D.C.—Jeremy Alford says there’s a lot at stake for the Bayou State.
“Those unplugged voters may not be aware that the aftereffects of an election are not confined to its district lines, and that the lessons gleaned can be applied to everything from policy forecasts to political tea leaves,” Alford writes in his latest column. “Moreover, this is a fascinating time in the history of Louisiana’s U.S. House delegation.”
Alford notes Congressman Steve Scalise of Jefferson Paris is the majority whip, the third-highest rank in the nation’s lower chamber, while Congressman Cedric Richmond of Orleans Parish is also the chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus. All four other delegation members are either in their first or second terms: Clay Higgins of St. Landry Parish, Mike Johnson of Caddo Parish, Garret Graves of East Baton Rouge and Ralph Abraham of Richland Parish.
Perhaps none of them has more at stake than Scalise, who is viewed as a possible successor to Speaker Paul Ryan, who announced last week he would step down at the end of the year. Even though speculation was muted after Scalise—like Ryan—endorsed House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Alford says that doesn’t mean Scalise is out of the running for a leadership win. “He could still move from the House’s number three job to number two, which McCarthy occupies now,” he writes. “Or he could still end up making a run for speaker, should McCarthy have trouble gathering the 218 votes needed.”
Either way, Scalise still has to first get re-elected back home this fall.
“To that end, his campaign team recently announced it had raised $3 million during the past three months—reportedly the largest such haul on record by a sitting whip,” Alford writes. “If you don’t have a frame of reference, that’s a rather large number.”
At the same time, Alford says Scalise is carefully watching all of the congressional races being waged in other states.
“Republicans are cautiously optimistic about this cycle, but many admit there’s a possibility that Democrats seize control of the House,” he writes. “That would in turn downgrade Scalise’s role to the minority leadership team, which means it represents a more serious threat than the whip’s re-election, which will probably be a snooze-fest.”
Jeremy Alford publishes LaPolitics Weekly, a newsletter on Louisiana politics, at LaPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter, or on Facebook. He can be reached at JJA@LaPolitics.com.
