The World Trade Organization is sharply raising its forecast for trade growth in goods this year after an unexpectedly strong first half due to rising AI-related purchases, front-loaded imports in the U.S. over tariff fears and robust developing-world trade.
The Geneva-based trade body said Tuesday that its economists are increasing their prediction of growth in merchandise trade to 2.4% this year, up from 0.9% as recently as August. In April, WTO experts were actually anticipating a 0.2% decline of goods trade this year.
However, they’re lowering the growth prediction for 2026 to 0.5%, from 1.8%.
The growth of export in services, meanwhile, is expected to come in at 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% next year—both slower rates than the 6.8% tallied in 2024.
The WTO says a “robust trade in artificial intelligence-related goods” is driving the increase in merchandise trade, notably semiconductors, servers and telecommunications equipment.
