The tariff math turns negative as refunds outpace revenue

The Trump administration’s tariff policy has resulted in substantial refunds and continued uncertainty about tariff revenue, Fortune reports. 

In May 2026, the Treasury refunded approximately $21.97 billion in tariffs while collecting about $21.93 billion. In June, refunds increased to $49.18 billion compared with $23.63 billion in new tariff collections, resulting in negative net customs revenue of about $25.56 billion. 

Much of the refunds are connected to the $166 billion collected under tariffs imposed through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which the Supreme Court struck down in February. The ruling requires the administration to return the money to potentially 330,000 eligible importers, and approximately $100 billion has already been refunded. About $66 billion remains to be distributed, with some outstanding refunds accruing interest. 

Tariffs have also contributed to higher prices for some goods, while frequent changes in tariff policy have created uncertainty for businesses managing supply chains, hiring, wages and investment. The lower tariff revenue also affects expectations about using tariffs to reduce the federal deficit and offset tax cuts. 

Although the administration has imposed additional tariffs under other legal authorities, including Sections 122, 232 and 301, some remain subject to legal challenges. Tariff revenue is expected to return to positive levels in the coming months, but uncertainty surrounding the broader tariff policy is expected to continue.

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