While Donald Trump handily won the majority of votes in Louisiana in Tuesday’s election, Hillary Clinton had the support of a majority of East Baton Rouge Parish voters.
Clinton led Trump by nearly 10 percentage points—52.3% to 43%—in the predominantly Democratic parish.
Those results could have implications for the mayoral runoff, where white Republican Mack “Bodi” White, a state senator from Central, will face African-American Democrat Sharon Weston Broome, a former state senator from north Baton Rouge, according to radio talk show host and political analyst Jim Engster, who spoke to the Baton Rouge Rotary Club today.
“Baton Rouge is, surprisingly, a Democratic stronghold in Louisiana, and we’ll find out how much of one in the runoff,” Engster said. “Our city is a blue dot in a red sea.”
On paper, Broome—who finished first in the primary field of 12 with 32% of the vote—would seem to be the favorite in the runoff against White, who received 29% of the vote.
Some 46% of parish voters are African-American, according to Engster, and the five African-American candidates in the primary, including Broome, collectively garnered 48% of the vote.
While it’s not a given that voters who supported the four other African-American candidates in the race would automatically support Broome in the runoff, Engster believes they will. That even includes supporters of state Rep. C. Denise Marcelle, who finished third in the primary with 13% of the vote and was Broome’s chief nemesis in the primary.
But that’s assuming they turn out to vote—a big assumption—and Engster says it will be critical for both candidates to get their supporters to the polls on Dec. 10 for what is expected to be a very low turnout runoff election.
“Ordinarily, voters would seem to tilt toward the Democrat,” he said. “But in a low-turnout election, Bodi could win if enough of his voters go to the polls.”
Also a factor in the runoff will be who wins the support of voters who cast ballots for the other white candidates in the primary. Republican candidates John Delgado and R.J. “Smokie” Bourgeois finished fourth and fifth in Tuesday’s race, with 8% and 6% of the vote, respectively. No party candidate Darryl Gissel, who had a limited crossover appeal with moderate voters, also finished with 6%. If Broome can pick up at least some of their white voters—which is more likely with Gissel than Delgado or Bourgeois—it might be enough to put her over the edge, Engster predicts.
Engster also believes Gov. John Bel Edwards could become a rising star in the Democratic Party nationwide and possibly, even, a presidential contender in 2020, provided he wins re-election in 2019.
Edwards is currently the only Democratic statewide elected official in Louisiana and the only Democratic governor in the south.
“Edwards, unlike Hillary Clinton, is conservative on many social issues and Edwards, unlike Hillary Clinton, went to West Point,” Engster says. “But he will have to win re-election first, which won’t be easy.”
—Stephanie Riegel
