With the 2019 election cycle approaching, special interests and party operatives that traditionally play in legislative contests are more confident than ever that big changes are coming to the Louisiana Legislature.
Term limits alone will see to that. As of now, 34 representatives out of the 105-member state House are ineligible for re-election, as are 16 legislators in the 39-member Senate. All in, that’s 34% of the Legislature that is going to be replaced in January 2020, which could in turn reshape the legislative landscape next term.
While the Senate represents the largest potential sea change, with 41% of its membership turning over, Republicans appear poised to continue growing their majorities in both chambers of the Legislature. The House, however, isn’t being ignored and the state GOP seems to be taking aim already at white Democratic representatives, as it has the past two terms.
Demographics and voting patterns in some of the House districts represented by white Democrats have been trending Republican and more conservative in recent years—to the point of peaking just in time for the 2019 cycle.
“There are some seats that we actually think could be more vulnerable than they were in previous years,” says Louisiana Republican Party Executive Director Andrew Bautsch, without disclosing actual seats.
Democrats, meanwhile, think they could have a few opportunities to do the same—flipping a red seat or two blue—but like their Republican counterparts, no hints are being given as to where these pickups could occur in the state.
“We haven’t pinpointed those districts and made decisions on those just yet,” says Rep. Robert Johnson of Marksville, the chair of the House Democratic Caucus. Regardless, the primary focus of the caucus’ strategy will be to maintain the 39 House seats the minority party currently possesses.
“Number one is to protect our existing seats,” says Johnson, adding that the key will be protecting the body’s 25 incumbent Democrats who are not term-limited. That means the party must likewise recruit candidates to fill 14 open seats next year, and boosters contend they are already making some headway. Dems will also have to contest two open seats early, due to the special elections triggered by the resignations of former Reps. Mike Danahay of Sulphur and Gene Reynolds of Minden.
“We are actively recruiting in those particular areas to be able to at least return our same numbers,” Johnson adds.
The same goes for Republicans, who have been on the lookout for new talent.
“Finding new candidates is getting a little bit harder each year, especially with the landscape in Baton Rouge,” says Bautsch. “It’s really hard, like with what’s happening with the governor and our legislators, to go to them and say, ‘We really want you to run for this seat.’ And then being like, ‘Well, why would I leave being a businessman or woman to try to do that?’”
While there has been a lot of chatter about the potential turnover in the Senate (upwards of 20 new members this next election cycle), but both parties aren’t forgetting their capacities in the lower chamber. Kyle Ruckert, the lead consultant for the Louisiana Committee for Conservative Majority, acknowledged that the House had become the conservative base for the Legislature, even though the Senate is getting most of the attention.And that includes attention from term-limited House members, who are hoping to hop over to the upper chamber next term.
“There’s a lot of talk about the Senate because there could be a more conservative change there,” says Ruckert. “A number of members are coming over that are House members that are business leaders that could make the state Senate more conservative. I don’t see it as an either-or scenario. You can’t keep your eye off of keeping a conservative House.”
That same goal is shared by the party as well.
“Pushing the Senate has been getting a lot of love and traction. But from our standpoint, they’re both equally as important,” says Bautsch. “It’s going to be a huge turnover. We want to maximize and make sure that we hold our seats that we know we have and also pick up a couple on the way.”
They said it: “General, do you believe in the tooth fairy?”—U.S. Sen. John Kennedy, questioning the FBI’s inspector general, in a congressional hearing
Jeremy Alford publishes LaPolitics Weekly, a newsletter on Louisiana politics, at LaPolitics.com. Follow him on Twitter, or on Facebook. He can be reached at JJA@LaPolitics.com.
