As the only declared Democratic candidate, Shawn Wilson starts out as a heavy favorite to finish in the top two in the open primary and make the runoff.
But from there, the former head of the state Department of Transportation and Development may face long odds in his attempt to duplicate his outgoing boss’ feat of being elected statewide in a Republican-leaning state.
“It’s a red state,” says Robert Collins, a political analyst and professor of urban studies and public policy at Dillard University. “He’s going to face a daunting challenge in the runoff.”
Gov. John Bel Edwards, who has reached his two-term limit, defied the odds. But Edwards basically could have been created in a lab as the perfect Southern Democrat—with his rural background, military experience, law enforcement ties, and conservative positions on guns and abortion—and still barely won reelection.
Wilson may struggle attracting the 30% of the white vote a Democrat typically would need to win statewide, Collins says. Attorney General Jeff Landry is the early favorite to be the Republican standard-bearer, though that’s at least partly because he was the first major candidate to enter the race and has high name recognition.
“[Wilson] would have to be able to do the appropriate messaging to vie for that more moderate Republican vote,” says Baton Rouge-based consultant and pollster John Couvillon, noting the “special series of circumstances” including Republican disunity that benefited Edwards. “Let’s see if Shawn Wilson knows how to replicate them.”
The dynamic changes if another prominent Democrat jumps in, though there does not appear to be one waiting in the wings. The biggest remaining wild card: What will U.S. Rep. Garret Graves do? He appeals to moderates, has name recognition and an established donor base, and represents the Baton Rouge media market where about 20% of the state’s voters live, Couvillon notes. The other high-profile Republican candidates—Treasurer John Schroder, state Sen. Sharon Hewitt and state Rep. Richard Nelson—all hail from St. Tammany Parish, he adds.
