The Baton Rouge metro could gain 7,900 jobs next year and 8,300 in 2026, according to Loren Scott’s latest Louisiana Economic Forecast.
Scott expects Louisiana as a whole to add almost 58,300 jobs during that time frame, and if forecasts hit the mark, the state will soon exceed the 2 million annual employment level for the first time in its history.
Two major uncertainties, however, cloud forecasters’ view of Louisiana’s future: this November’s presidential election and the immediate future of the national economy.
According to Scott, this November’s presidential election will be a “highly consequential” one for Louisiana’s economy in large part because the two leading candidates have “very different ideas” about fossil fuels as well as very different ideas about the users of fossil fuels—chemical manufacturers, LNG exporters and refineries.
“Imagine what would happen if you outlawed fracking,” Scott says. “Imagine what would happen to your utility bills. Imagine what would happen to economic growth in south Louisiana.”
As for the immediate future of the national economy, this year’s forecast is generally more optimistic than last year’s.
“If you look at the forecasts … they really think the Fed is going to engineer a soft landing,” Scott says.
Industrial construction is fueling much of the growth being seen in the Capital Region, a nine-parish metro that will grow even larger when Assumption is added to its makeup next year. Some $10.5 billion in projects are already under construction and another $18.1 billion are waiting on final investment decisions.
Forecasters’ optimism regarding the Capital Region is further strengthened by the recently opened Amazon fulfillment center in north Baton Rouge, a facility that has already added 500 jobs and is projected to add 500 more.
The two riverboat casinos moving landside in downtown Baton Rouge appear to be bolstering the local gaming market, as well. Casino gross revenues have been steadily increasing since Q3 2023 when The Queen moved onshore.
“In absolute terms, [the Capital Region] is the fastest-growing area of the state,” Scott says.
Scott was the keynote speaker at Tuesday’s Louisiana Business Symposium hosted by Business Report.