Poll shows Democrat Mitch Landrieu ahead of Republicans in theoretical race for Vitter’s Senate seat

    Although Mitch Landrieu told LaPolitics last week he’s not interesting in running for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by David Vitter, a new statewide poll shows the Democratic New Orleans mayor ahead of four Republican candidates who have either announced a run or are expected to.

    The survey, conducted by Gulf Breeze, Florida-based Market Research Insight on Dec. 2-4 with 600 likely voters, shows Landrieu leading the pack with 30% of support. Trailing him are Republicans Scott Angelle at 24%, Charles Boustany and John Kennedy at 15% each, and John Fleming at 5%. The other 11% of respondents say they’re undecided.

    Angelle and Kennedy are said to be eyeing a run, while Boustany and Fleming have announced they’re in the race. While Landrieu may be leading the four Republicans in a theoretical race, the poll suggests other Democrats wouldn’t be so successful.

    “Since no strong Democrat has shown intentions of running, Mitch Landrieu was chosen as the best known Democrat,” the poll notes. “Another Democrat would not likely poll as well as Landrieu in an actual race.”

    The poll’s margin of error is 4.1%. Of the poll respondents, 45% identified themselves as Republicans, while 34% said they are Democrats and 21% independents.

    The poll concludes that while funding is about equal for all Republican candidates, Angelle “has a definite advantage” in the primary. As for runoff scenarios, the poll concludes that Angelle, Boustany or Kennedy “would probably win” against a Democrat—“providing no candidate attacks the others like Vitter did in the governor’s race.”

    “We are likely in an era where there are three strong Republicans, like the governor’s race,” is among the conclusions outlined in the poll. “If Republicans don’t do like Vitter did, a Republican should win the Senate seat.”

    —Steve Sanoski

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