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As we all know by now, Congresswoman Julia Letlow is challenging incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy and she has President Donald Trump in her corner, but that doesn’t mean the infrastructure of the Louisiana Republican Party will necessarily follow suit.
Derek Babcock, who was reelected this weekend to another two-year term as state GOP chair, says the president’s endorsement of Letlow has not led to a groundswell of Republicans asking the party to issue a similar endorsement.
At first blush, that makes sense, with a statewide elected Republican also in the race—Treasurer John Fleming—and another three who serve on the GOP State Central Committee—Ways and Means Chair Julie Emerson, state Sen. Blake Miguez and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta.
As such, unless the field of challengers thins out, there could be a bloody battle pitting six elected officials against one another.
“I think the party is going to stay out of it through the primary,” Babcock says.
On the GOP side of this election, which is the only side making noise, the number of viable personalities creates a scenario where division could become the theme.
There are now 20 days until qualifying for the U.S. Senate race commences (Feb. 11-13), so the big question related to that process is whether the field will thin out between now and then.
“It’s a game of chicken right now; which candidates not named Julia Letlow or Bill Cassidy punt?” says Rep. Mike Bayham, who also serves on the State Central Committee. “There’s not enough political width for divided alternatives to the incumbent and the president’s choice.”
If the field doesn’t narrow to three, we’re practically assured of a runoff between Cassidy and Letlow, barring something drastic hindering either campaign, Bayham says.
Meanwhile, if the field remains stacked with elected officials, Republicans could find themselves consumed by infighting.
“I think it will be primarily based on voting record and positions,” says Woody Jenkins, who chairs the East Baton Rouge Parish GOP and once lost a close race for the U.S. Senate. “Hopefully it won’t get ugly.”
In the face of this upheaval, corners of the GOP donor class are sticking with Cassidy for now and some are hesitant to read too much into Trump’s backing of Letlow.
Businessman Eddie Rispone, who ran for governor in 2019 with Trump’s support, is now finance chair for the state GOP and is backing Cassidy.
While Cassidy did vote to convict Trump in the president’s second impeachment trial, Rispone says he still can’t understand why Trump would endorse a “rookie” over Louisiana’s senior senator.
“You know, [Trump] does some things sometimes that we can’t explain,” Rispone says with a chuckle.
Rispone adds, “I had his endorsement as well. He came and campaigned for me and everything. People turn out for him, but they don’t necessarily turn out for people he endorsed.”
Fleming, who has built a campaign around his deputy chief of staff gig at the White House during the first Trump administration, echoed the same to LaPolitics, noting “not everyone Trump endorses gets elected.”
The treasurer also says he has noticed some pushback against Trump putting his thumb on the scale, rather than letting Louisiana Republicans hash things out for themselves.
“We’re hearing a lot of discussion out there that they much prefer to make their own choice rather than have someone else choose their candidate for them,” Fleming says.
While the other GOP contenders likewise proclaim allegiance to or prior work experience with the president, Fleming is a kind of case study for Trump’s entry into this race, according to Dillard University professor Robert Collins.
“I think a lot of people will say, ‘Wait a minute, how close could he have really been to Trump if he’s not getting Trump’s endorsement?’” asks Collins.
As of this week, Letlow is the only candidate who can truly hang her proverbial hat on Trump’s endorsement.
After her 5th Congressional District was redrawn to include East Baton Rouge, Livingston and Ascension parishes, Letlow moved to Baton Rouge and began making inroads in the Capital Region.
While many voters know her story of ascending to her congressional seat after her husband, Luke Letlow, died of COVID, she’s making her first statewide bid for office in a top-dollar race that promises contrast.
“We don’t know what kind of candidate she’s going to be,” says Albert Samuels, who heads the political science department at Southern University. “Candidate quality does matter.”
Letlow announced her candidacy Tuesday morning at an event hosted by Business Report.
In a digital press conference Cassidy’s campaign set up on Tuesday afternoon, he touted a string of legislative accomplishments that none of his announced challengers can come close to matching.
“The crux of the campaign will not be about endorsements,” Cassidy said. “The crux of the campaign is: How do you make Louisiana and the United States a better place?
Setting aside the impeachment vote, Cassidy has consistently and loudly supported Trump at every opportunity. But on Tuesday, he departed from Trump’s mantra that the economy is booming.
“Our country is not doing well,” he said, recalling a town hall meeting he attended in St. James Parish. “When I said inflation is up and wages are not growing as rapidly, heads were nodding.”
Cassidy’s war chest is essentially bottomless, with $15 million raised this cycle. A recent fundraiser in Baton Rouge with U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune brought in more than $600,000, according to Cassidy’s campaign staff.
“John Thune is all in,” Cassidy says, adding that he expects continued support from the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
As for support from those who will vote back home, mainly those pulling the strings from within the Louisiana Republican Party, Cassidy, along with the rest of the field, will have to wait and see.
