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A mix of steady economic growth and rising uncertainty—”good news and not-so-good news”—is shaping Louisiana’s real estate outlook, according to economist Loren Scott, who delivered the keynote at the 2026 Trends in Baton Rouge Real Estate seminar Thursday morning.
Scott said national recession fears remain low, but economic growth is underperforming expectations, with GDP forecasts falling short of the 3% benchmark typically associated with strong expansion. At the same time, policy volatility—particularly surrounding tariffs—continues to offset gains from tax cuts and deregulation, creating mixed signals for investors and developers.
“Tariffs are just stupid,” Scott said. “People ask, ‘then why in the heck is Trump doing it?’ I don’t know—why do guys go into bars to meet women?”
Higher interest rates have already slowed the market, with residential sales dropping sharply as mortgage rates and monthly payments have climbed. Commercial construction has also declined across most sectors—the office market faces additional pressure from remote work trends and emerging AI disruption.
Still, Louisiana’s industrial economy remains a bright spot, Scott says. Driven by global demand for liquefied natural gas and petrochemicals, the state has roughly $98.1 billion in projects underway and another $119.1 billion announced. Major developments along the Gulf Coast, including LNG facilities and manufacturing investments, continue to attract global capital seeking lower energy costs.
In the Baton Rouge region, that momentum is particularly visible in Ascension Parish, he says, where the RiverPlex MegaPark has secured a major Hyundai steel facility expected to bring 1,400 high-paying jobs, with additional industrial tenants in the pipeline.
Scott says geopolitical instability—particularly in global energy markets—could further benefit Louisiana by pushing international buyers toward more stable U.S. supply chains. However, he cautioned that local opposition to large-scale industrial projects, especially in southeast Louisiana, could slow future growth if left unaddressed.
