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In a hyper-partisan age when campaigns can target voters directly though any number of digital channels, where a candidate is from might not mean as much in a statewide race as it used to, but it still matters.
Congresswoman Julia Letlow currently serves in the U.S. House, while U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy and Treasurer John Fleming both used to. So one might assume that those House districts constitute the foundation that they would build upon as they seek the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate, and that’s true to some extent.
But for Letlow, the upshot of two rounds of redistricting since her first run is that she has effectively run for three different districts in her three elections, giving her more exposure to different parts of the state than she would have had otherwise.
Polling suggests she is strongest in the Alexandria-Monroe-Shreveport media market. She also has some momentum in the Baton Rouge area, which she started representing parts of about a year ago.
And she has made inroads in southeast Louisiana, securing endorsements from Republican executive committees in Plaquemines, Orleans and (most significantly) Jefferson parishes, which shows the power of President Donald Trump’s endorsement. As her team gets the word out about Trump’s support to potential Republican voters who aren’t plugged into the race yet, it believes the regional differences won’t matter much anymore.
The team feels pretty good about north Louisiana, so in the near future, it likely will focus on the Greater New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Lafayette areas. That last one will be interesting to watch, since no one can claim it as their home base. Gov. Jeff Landry’s endorsement alongside Trump’s could go a long way in Acadiana.
From Cassidy’s perspective, if he’s seeing decent numbers out of Lafayette as the votes are counted on May 16, he’s probably in for a great night. But he’s definitely not counting on that scenario playing out.
Running up the score in southeast Louisiana and Baton Rouge will be crucial for the incumbent. His team may fight for votes everywhere in the state, but it will get harder the farther they venture from urban and suburban areas.
Team Cassidy has been projecting strength by touting its vastly superior fundraising, which it is using to dominate the airwaves. Cassidy’s campaign and surrogates bought some $866,000 in advertising for April 4-10, compared to pro-Letlow spending of merely $54,000.
Like Letlow, Fleming is strongest in north Louisiana, more so in the northwestern region where he is from. But he also picked up support when state Sen. Blake Miguez dropped out of the race, which suggests growth potential in Acadiana.
His campaign isn’t focusing on any particular area of the state, instead counting on Fleming’s conservative bona fides to appeal to die-hard conservatives statewide. He has been putting a lot of emphasis on his opposition to carbon capture and sequestration, which resonates more in rural parishes than in places that are more accustomed to industrial development.
Political consultant Mary-Patricia Wray says Cassidy’s path to victory depends on maximizing suburban performance while making some headway in less favorable territory. Acadiana’s GOP electorate skews older and more conservative, which favors Fleming, she adds.
“All three major candidates will be vying for votes from Acadiana, north Louisiana and the Baton Rouge/Northshore suburbs, which are likely to drive the highest participation—both because of the Republican density and, in some cases, competitive down-ballot races,” Wray says.
Consultant Greg Buisson, whose firm is based in Metairie and Covington, points to several races in his region of the state that could boost turnout, including the Supreme Court, the Public Service Commission and elections for mayor and city council in Kenner. That comparatively high turnout could be helpful for Cassidy.
Letlow has done well in securing endorsements from Republican Party organizations, Buisson says, and her nod from the Jefferson Parish GOP was a tough loss for Cassidy. But he hasn’t yet seen a lot of activity on Letlow’s behalf from those groups.
He says national media attention could change the dynamics of the race. While Cassidy’s defeat probably wouldn’t affect the partisan makeup of the Senate, since any of the Republicans will be heavily favored in the general election, the narrative of one of the last Republican supporters of Trump’s second impeachment making his stand makes for an easy story.
Would a personal campaign appearance from Trump finish off the race? Maybe, Buisson says, though it could depend on the timing and how things are going for the president as far as the economy, gas prices and a resolution to the war in Iran.
“If I’m the consultant for Julia Letlow, I’m waking up every morning and wondering what the headline was from whatever happened between midnight and 6 a.m.,” he says. “Because it could change people’s perception on a dime.”
Robert Collins, a Dillard University professor, political analyst and former senior congressional staffer, says one might presume that, with all three candidates being current or former members of the U.S. House, their logical base would be their current or former district.
But regional interests likely matter less than the national issues they are able to latch onto, he says, especially since “regional interests” are hard to define when “we don’t really have anything even resembling rational maps or compact maps,” with the possible exception of Congressman Troy Carter’s District 2.
Early voting for the May 16 primary begins May 2. The likely runoff in the GOP primary would be held June 27, with the general election in November.
