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For ambitious politicos, perhaps the two most tantalizing words in the English language are “open seat.”
But while they won’t have an incumbent to contend with, anyone interested in the four openings in the Legislature that will be on the ballot in February will be faced with a compressed schedule and an electorate distracted by the holidays and carnival season. The importance of name recognition and fundraising, always crucial in any race, will be magnified in the sprint to the primary.
Former Reps. Jason Hughes and Matt Willard, freshly elected to the New Orleans City Council, officially resigned from the Legislature last week. That allowed Speaker Phillip DeVillier to add them to the special election that already includes seats formerly held by former Sen. Joseph Bouie (now leading Southern University New Orleans) and former Rep. Chad Brown (who Gov. Jeff Landry tapped to head the Louisiana Office of Alcohol and Tobacco Control).
The three races in New Orleans effectively will be intraparty contests among Democrats, and with just under a week or so until qualifying opens, numerous potential candidates are testing the waters.
But a real partisan clash is on tap for the 60th District, based in Assumption and Iberville parishes. Brad Daigle, a member of the Republican State Central Committee, will be able to raise money and mount a strong effort to flip the district and add to the GOP’s supermajority.
Chasity Martinez, who serves on the Iberville Parish Council and represents a fair number of conservative voters, will vie to keep the seat in the Democrats’ column. She has the support of Rep. Kyle Green, the interim chair of the House Democratic Caucus.
Brown, a Democrat serving in a Republican administration, told LaPolitics that he will not get involved in the race.
The 60th District historically leans Democratic, though it has been trending Republican for federal elections. Former Gov. John Bel Edwards and President Donald Trump have both carried the district.
About 42% of the district’s voters are Black, so a Democrat doesn’t need that many white voters to win, pollster and demographer John Couvillon says.
“It’s going to be an interesting test of the extent to which Republicans can pick up legislative seats,” he says.
While they may not be the only ones to qualify, the fact that Daigle and Martinez already are off and running with establishment backing could make it hard for anyone else to crack the top two in such a brief race. With the New Orleans seats, the outlook is much more cloudy.
Name recognition will be a major theme in the Crescent City races. Joseph Bouie III is expected to try and replace his father in the Senate. He is likely to face another political legacy in Sidney Barthelemy, son of the former New Orleans mayor.
Former state legislator and Council member Jon Johnson has publicly discussed a run for Bouie’s seat. Keith Lampkin, chief of operations and external affairs with the Orleans Parish District Attorney’s Office, also may jump in.
Edwin T. Murray, son of former state Sen. Ed Murray, has launched a bid to try and replace Willard, though a kickoff event planned for last week was postponed. Eugene B. Green, son of Council member Eugene J. Green, also is expected to vie for the District 97 seat.
“I would give an advantage to the folks who have the name recognition,” New Orleans political consultant Ike Spears says. “The rest of it comes down to money and political support.”
Most of the district overlaps with Senate District 3, so there are potential candidates considering both races. Durrell Laurent, who ran against Willard in 2019, may launch a Senate bid this time around. The names of Ethan Ashley, the former school board member, and attorneys Ken Barnes and Kenya Rounds also came up in conversations with New Orleans political professionals.
There’s not as much buzz around District 100, though Dana Henry, an attorney and former executive with Einstein Charter Schools, is said to be weighing a run. Corinne Villavaso, legislative assistant to Sen. Jimmy Harris, looked at the race, though sources say she has decided against running.
Obviously, you shouldn’t expect everyone who has looked at a race to follow through and qualify. And there could always be high-profile wild cards.
There is some chatter that former longtime legislator Arthur Morrell, who retired from politics then un-retired in 2023 to make a run for secretary of state, might be tempted to join the fray. And this is pure speculation, but would you bet against Oliver Thomas or Cindy Nguyen making a bid?
Hughes and Willard are not yet publicly backing anyone, though that may change as the field fills out.
“It’s really going to come down to resources and who can assemble the best ground game,” Hughes says. “This race in District 100 is going to be won on the ground, knocking on doors, talking to voters directly.”
Dillard University professor and political analyst Robert Collins expects the short timeline to limit the field, compared to what you might usually see for an open seat. Those that do make credible runs probably already have money and name recognition in their districts, he says.
Normally in situations like this, the outgoing officeholder will anoint a successor, Collins says. He expects to see that happen with the three New Orleans seats, adding that he expects turnout to be low.
Qualifying will be held Dec. 17-19 ahead of the Feb. 7 election day, which is 10 days before Mardi Gras. Beyond the four legislative elections, nothing else will be on the ballot. The runoffs, if needed, would fall on March 14.
