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Federal Reserve officials expect the Iran war will worsen inflation this year while having little impact on economic growth, but they still expect to cut their key rate once in 2026.
For now, Fed policymakers left short-term interest rates unchanged Wednesday for the second straight meeting at about 3.6%. In a statement, the central bank said that the “implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain.”
Still, by keeping their forecast for a rate cut this year and next—the same projections that they made in December—central bank policymakers appear to expect the gas price spike from the Iran war to have a largely temporary effect on inflation and the economy. Policymakers also foresee unemployment remaining unchanged by the end of this year, a more optimistic outlook than most outside economists.
Whether that turns out to be true will largely depend on the length of the conflict in the Middle East. The officials expect inflation to fall back to 2.2% in 2027 and hit the Fed’s 2% target in 2028.
Fed officials now expect that inflation will be 2.7% at the end of this year, up from their December forecast but slightly below the 2.8% it reached in January. They expect core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, to also finish the year at 2.7%, up from a previous forecast of 2.5%. The Fed considers core prices a better measure of longer-run inflation. Consumer prices are expected to spike higher in the coming months as gas prices have soared, but those increases could unwind by the end of the year, particularly if the conflict ends soon.
