Hot inflation report raises odds of a Fed rate hike next week

U.S. inflation remained stubbornly high in August, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its meeting next week, The New York Times reports. 

Consumer prices rose 3.4% from a year earlier, while core inflation increased 2.4%. A closely watched “supercore” measure of services excluding housing and energy accelerated 0.5% for the month and 3% annually. 

Rising energy costs, driven in part by disruptions from the Iran war, were a major contributor, with gasoline prices climbing 3.9% and fuel oil jumping 10.1%. Airline fares have also surged nearly 25% from a year ago. Meanwhile, goods prices have largely stabilized following earlier tariff-related increases, although the latest tariffs on Canadian imports were not reflected in the August data.

The report comes as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces pressure to demonstrate that the central bank remains committed to bringing inflation back toward its 2% target. Investors now see a roughly 90% chance of a quarter-point rate increase, up from about 70% before the report. 

Some policymakers argue that higher rates are needed because current policy may not be sufficiently restraining demand, while others had hoped inflation would continue cooling and supported holding rates steady. The latest figures challenge that expectation, but they do not settle the longer-term outlook. 

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