Beef prices aren’t just spiking—they may be structurally higher for years, The Wall Street Journal writes.
The U.S. cattle herd has fallen to its lowest level in 75 years after drought, pandemic-era losses and years of downsizing. Ranchers, enjoying some of their strongest profits in decades, are reluctant to rapidly rebuild herds, wary of overproduction and climate risk. Analysts say meaningful supply growth may not come before 2028.
Meanwhile, consumer demand remains resilient. Ground beef prices are up sharply year over year, yet shoppers continue paying a premium. Restaurants, especially burger chains, are feeling margin pressure, and major meatpackers including Tyson, JBS and Cargill are closing plants or cutting capacity in anticipation of a smaller herd.
Policy moves—from boosting imports to encouraging herd expansion—have had limited impact so far. The broader takeaway: Tight supply, steady demand and cautious producers suggest elevated beef prices may be the new baseline, with ripple effects across grocery aisles and restaurant balance sheets.
The Wall Street Journal has the full story.
