The International Energy Agency is warning that the global oil market’s surplus is narrowing—but not disappearing—as OPEC+ production slips and sanctioned barrels struggle to find buyers, The Wall Street Journal writes.
In its latest monthly report, the agency lowered its global supply growth forecast to 3 million barrels a day this year, down from 3.1 million, and cut next year’s outlook to 2.4 million barrels a day. The shift follows a steep 1.5 million-barrel-a-day supply drop in November driven by outages in Kuwait and Kazakhstan, as well as weaker demand for Russian and Venezuelan crude.
OPEC+ output fell by 350,000 barrels a day in November, and the alliance has agreed to pause planned production hikes in early 2026. Yet even with slower supply growth, global inventories remain high—and the IEA notes that sanctions, longer shipping routes and tight refining capacity are preventing crude prices from falling as much as the oversupply suggests.
