Given the rancor around redrawing the U.S. House map that kept senators in session into the wee hours of last week, it’s not surprising that legislative leaders aren’t talking about which maps—if any—might be next to go under the knife.
State lawmakers, however, are nonetheless thinking about their own districts and when the moment might arrive for some official tinkering.
In an episode of the “LaPolitics Report” podcast that will be released this week, Speaker Phillip DeVillier says there’s always a chance a legislative map proposal surfaces this session, but the political will to move forward may not be there.
“As difficult and emotional as redrawing the congressional maps can be, I personally feel like it’s a lot more difficult to do that redrawing in the Legislature when you start dealing with members’ House districts and, of course, the Senate’s,” DeVillier said on the podcast. “So, I’m not real sure where that leads. The conversation, again, has been on the congressional maps.”
There are six bills that would redraw all or parts of the Louisiana Legislature, but two are leading the way as the likeliest placeholders: House and Governmental Affairs Chair Beau Beaullieu has introduced House Bill 640 to redistrict the state House and S&GA Chair Caleb Kleinpeter has Senate Bill 136 for his chamber.
But that doesn’t mean the House and Senate are primed for action on this front. Like DeVillier, Beaullieu doesn’t see an immediate path forward.
“I don’t ever want to use the word never,” Beaullieu said. “But right now, if somebody would try and push a bill this session [to redistrict the Legislature], I would not entertain it.”
GOP has the upper hand
Earlier this month, the U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals vacated its previous ruling that the Louisiana Legislature’s districts violate the Voting Rights Act, sending the case back to the trial court.
The decision was not a surprise following the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, which upended the long-standing understanding of how the Voting Rights Act should work and invalidated Louisiana’s congressional map.
As a result, if Republicans want to eliminate any Democratic district on any map they control, the only obstacles are likely to be political, rather than legal.
Suddenly, Republican legislators have a newfound source of political power, says Justin Levitt, a constitutional law scholar at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles who was the White House’s first senior policy adviser for democracy and voting rights during the Biden administration.
“I would say that as a practical matter, the federal courts will not stop Republicans in Louisiana from redistricting to eliminate any Democratic districts they want,” Levitt says.
The way the Supreme Court puts it, minority plaintiffs challenging a map under the Voting Rights Act now have to prove intentional racial discrimination. Yet the court’s majority all but endorsed partisan gerrymandering for political reasons.
(So in a state like Louisiana, where race and partisanship are closely correlated, Republicans who eliminate majority-minority districts have little to fear from the courts. Just as long as Republicans argue they’re doing it to enhance their party’s political prospects, rather than to make it harder for minority voters to elect the candidate of their choice.)
Democrats may be facing an unpromising future. A redraw of Louisiana’s legislative map “could eliminate up to 23 Black-majority districts and lock Democrats deep into a superminority in both chambers,” according to a report by Fair Fight Action and Black Voters Matter.
Redrawing other lines
The Legislature has the ability to not only redraw congressional lines and its own districts, but also those of the Public Service Commission; Louisiana Supreme Court; Board of Elementary and Secondary Education; and other state courts.
While the current focus is on congressional districts as national parties jockey for advantage in the federal midterms, the Louisiana v. Callais decision will have statewide implications, from school boards to city councils.
“The question really is, ‘How far do white Republicans want to go?” asks Public Service Commissioner Davante Lewis, who was a plaintiff in the challenge to the map that legislators approved in 2022. “If they decide to obliterate my district, as of now, it looks very legal, and it could happen.”
Demographer Mike Hefner, who often helps to craft maps for Louisiana governments, says the math involved in balancing Republicans and Democrats and “others” can be tricky.
An aggressively partisan Republican redistricting effort could even backfire, as Democratic voters are shifted around in ways that could alter the makeup of districts that currently are safely Republican.
“You can spread your Republican voters thin in some areas, where it would be closer to almost a swing district,” Hefner says.
Rep. Kyle Green, who chairs the Democratic Caucus in his chamber, echoes that sentiment, noting Republicans could risk “unintended consequences.”
“If you reduce Democratic seats or majority-minority seats, and those voters are placed in Republican districts, then those Republican districts become less Republican,” Green says.
To wait or not wait
With that risk in mind, Louisiana GOP Chair Derek Babcock is more or less satisfied with a 5-1 Republican-leaning congressional map, although he would certainly prefer six Louisiana Republicans in the U.S. House.
“Right now, we’re more focused on the congressional maps,” he says. “I guess once we get past this week, we’ll be looking at the legislative maps.”
Even then, attention doesn’t mean action, says Rep. Michael Echols, who chairs the Republican legislative delegation and believes “nothing has really changed” since lawmakers last debated the current legislative map.
“So I would assume that the body would be comfortable with where we are,” Echols says, adding. “I think after we get through the next census, we can reevaluate.”
