Global trade is proving far more resilient than many economists expected in the face of escalating U.S. tariffs, The Wall Street Journal writes.
Despite forecasts of a decline earlier this year, the U.N. now projects global trade in goods and services will reach $35 trillion in 2025—a 7% jump driven by both higher prices and rising volumes.
Analysts say the damage from Washington’s tariff hikes has been milder than anticipated, partly because the WTO framework remains largely intact: 72% of global goods trade still happens under most-favored-nation rules. Meanwhile, the U.S. tech investment boom has fueled a surge in semiconductor and computing imports, offsetting tariff pressure.
But emerging risks are building. China, shut out of some U.S. markets, is redirecting exports to Europe at steep discounts, heightening trade tensions and prompting warnings of retaliatory tariffs.
The bigger question ahead: Can the system withstand a widening China–EU trade fight?
