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The race to the polls is on.

A Metro Council resolution to pull Mayor Kip Holden’s $901 million capital-improvements package from the Nov. 14 ballot failed by one vote, a decision that served as the starting pistol for proponents and opponents to shift their campaigns into high gear.

But District 9 councilman Joel Boé, who called the Oct. 12 special meeting with District 1 councilman Trae Welch and District 3 councilman Chandler Loupe, says the bond issue most likely will fail because issues surrounding Alive have eroded support for the proposition.

“Now it’s up to the mayor to sell it and deal with the repercussions of these issues,” he says. “I feel that people on the fence probably won’t vote for it. The water’s too muddy.”

The Metro Council’s 6-6 vote indicates the uphill battle Holden’s administration is fighting. That’s why Holden, Special Policy Adviser Walter Monsour and Chief Administrative Officer Mike Futrell are engaging as many civic and social groups as they can, campaign consultant Rannah Gray says.

A slew of public appearances, complete with a PowerPoint presentation and a willingness to answer questions, could go a long way to soothe some of the public outrage over Alive—the $225 million riverfront economic-development project that’s billed as an interactive adventure meant to generate billions in revenue.

“Our campaign strategy hasn’t changed because we’ve committed to move forward despite the distractions,” Gray says. “We want to come talk to small groups, to get people together so they can ask questions. It’s been very effective.”

Attorney Jennifer Treadway Morris attended a discussion of the bond proposal held last week by the League of Women Voters of Baton Rouge. Initially undecided, she says after listening to a panel of supporters and critics and getting basic facts on the economics behind Alive, she decided to support Holden’s vision.

“They have done an awful lot of legwork and research. It’s not just an idea,” she says of backers who pointed to job-creation and tax-revenue projections for the riverfront project. “We’ve seen downtown really grow. They have a track record of success.”

Morris, who joined the league the same day, says critics of the bond brought up some good points, including how New Orleans attractions such as Harrah’s casino and Jazzland theme park [which later became Six Flags New Orleans] went bankrupt despite rosy attendance hopes. Yet she sees Alive as a different animal, one that will appeal to visitors on several levels.

“Today’s consumers are educated consumers,” she says. “We have the Internet now. People are like, ‘Don’t talk down to me, all I want isn’t just to be entertained.’ They’re looking for ways to educate their children while they’re entertaining them because they have limited time.”

Regarding the bond opponents, who lacked numbers or studies to challenge Holden’s projections but offered colorful jabs against tax spending, she says: “I don’t align myself with radicals on one side or the other. Ninety percent of the population is somewhere in the middle, which is where I fall. Just give me the information. Don’t tell me how I should vote.”

By not closing a land-ownership dispute between the state and Canadian National Railroad over the Alive site—south of Hollywood Casino sandwiched between River Road and the Mississippi River—and the uncertainty of the state providing $40 million to $42 million in site-preparation costs, Holden has undermined his credibility with voters, political consultant Roy Fletcher says.

“It’s a chance for him to recover and make his case,” he says. “This bond issue is ultimately about [Holden], his administration and his legacy. Kip Holden’s biggest asset is himself.”

Linking Holden’s identity to the proposal will turn out pro-tax, black voters who traditionally don’t vote on bond issues, Fletcher says.

Mike Futrell

“Holden is an African-American mayor, and there’s some pride in that,” he says. “He’s their mayor, and consequently the more he makes it about him, the better the chances of getting those voters to come out.”

Prominent businessman Collis Temple says Holden commands a great deal of respect in the black community because of his accomplishments, accountability and the stereotypes he has overcome to win and maintain his position.

“Kip has candidly been about as colorblind a black elected official as I’ve ever seen in my life,” he says. “He’s a very principled guy. If he feels or thinks things need to be a certain way, he’s going to express it and move forward with it. When you have a guy that operates like that, you have to have a high degree of respect for him.”

Whether or not that respect translates into presence at the polls remains unclear. Temple, who supports the capital-improvements package, says the administration needs to work to engage black and white voters on the proposal’s economic benefits. The problem is that it’s the lone item on the ballot.

“When you’re in a situation where you don’t have anything on the ballot other than the potential for taxes, that’s tough,” he says. “It’s about perception. It’s about getting past a negative perception and trying to get a positive perception put in place in terms of the reality of what this means to Baton Rouge and its constituency.”

Gray says the campaign doesn’t focus on race. Instead, it targets precincts according to turnouts in the fall.

Progress Is… , a grassroots organization formed to support the package, is starting traditional campaign activity while maintaining its educational initiative. One of the group’s founding members, Todd Teepell, says it didn’t expect organized opposition.

“We didn’t expect it to be this vicious,” he says. “We expected that people would be informed and take positions. It’s like a formal opposition has formed, so we need to get support.”

Information also is a rallying cry for opponents. The state has committed to resolving Alive’s site dispute with the railroad pending the election. Holden has made a presentation to the Capital Region Legislative Delegation, which will take no formal position until after the voters have spoken.

That means there’s been no resolution to issues that Baton Rouge Tea Party spokesman Dwight Hudson says are vital to voters.

“The majority of our members actually support the infrastructure, but don’t support Alive,” he says. “They don’t believe Alive is a viable project, and they still have unanswered questions about it.”

The Tea Party also plans to have at least two formal meetings to distribute information and recruit for canvassing trips and sign-waving at major intersections in the weeks leading up to the vote.

“It’s a lot of the same information on the bond issue,” Hudson says. “But there are lots of questions about Alive. We’re just trying to make sure people get the information they need and to get out the vote.”

Smaller organizations such as the Jeffersonians and Tax Busters also have come out with their opposition to the package. Jeffersonians President Alex Velasquez says his group is using e-mail blasts to spread the word and will launch a Web site by the end of the month.

“My concern is that the mayor has brought back a bond issue that has changed very little from last year, but in a more forceful mode,” he says. “If anything, it’s solidified the viewpoints. Those that are for it are for it no matter what. Those that oppose it are even more upset.”

Gray says the opposition won’t affect Holden’s campaign because it’s a tax issue—not a candidate-based election.

“They can disagree with or dislike the bond issue, but it’s not like they have another plan or candidate running against it,” she says. “All of the focus is on the facts.”

Whether or not those facts can sway voters remains to be seen.

Fletcher says 25% to 30% of voters don’t make up their minds until the week of an election. That’s a large percentage in an election such as this, and time is on Holden’s side.

“This is not going to be burned into people’s memories,” he says. “I don’t know if he’s going to pass it, but I think it’ll be close.”

BANG FOR THE BUCK

Here’s where your money will be going if the plan passes on Nov. 14:

Public safety and protection of property

Parish prison complex $135,367,254

Juvenile services $44,004,294

Public safety complex $92,521,148

City Hall consolidation $38,788,281

Traffic signal replacement and synchronization $45,744,107

Total $356,425,083

Drainage improvements $178,290,771

[Triggers $137,000,000 in U.S. Army Corps of Engineers funding]

Economic development and job creation

River Center Phase II $31,968,077

River Center Phase III $40,467,279

Parking garages $68,824,512

Alive $225,000,000

Total $366,259,868

Grand total $900,975,722

SOURCE: East Baton Rouge Parish