BusinessReport.com

A shaky stock market, shaky housing sales and nervous consumers don’t signal a recession to Dawn Johnson, just a presidential election year.

“A lot of it is generated because they want to make people nervous,” says Johnson, the executive director of the Louisiana Retailers Association. “It’s amazing how all this recession talk kicks up when the election is going.”

Election fervor doesn’t seem enough to get a person worrying, but it seems possible with Johnson pointing to retailers popping up everywhere, road upgrades improving shopper traffic and area retailers crossing their fingers about this year’s sales.

“Everyone is optimistic,” she says. “The Baton Rouge economy is going to grow with the added people, added retail outlets, added tourism and with the extended Baton Rouge area with Bass Pro, the Mall of Louisiana expansion and Perkins Rowe. You can’t really stop that growth. It’s a positive thing for Baton Rouge.”

Despite increasingly shaky consumer confidence from lingering worries about a national recession, Johnson is sticking to her forecast.

Louisiana has something she says the rest of the nation doesn’t—the calming, stable influence of newly elected Gov. Bobby Jindal. Also, the area’s steady stream of new retailers are contributing to a sense of uniqueness in the area that she anticipates will help grow sales.

So far, area consumers are following the national trend, with less discretionary spending on items like jewelry and automobiles. But they’re spending on necessities like clothing and especially on food, lending to grocers reporting stronger sales. Johnson says consumers focused more on family gatherings for the holidays, which she says is also indicative of nervous consumers seeking comfort in an election year.

Many area retailers were disappointed over Christmas sales. According to December sales tax figures for East Baton Rouge Parish, spending rose 2% to $756 million in December. The figures jumped 10% in outlying areas of the parish to $329.1 million, but fell 4% in the city limits to $427.4 million.

Johnson anticipates improvement later this year. It’s more than just a feeling at the city-parish’s Department of Finance, where Revenue Manager Bobby Craig is projecting 4% growth in sales tax collections this year. The forecast calls for $161.4 million in collections, which he considers a stable year in collections.

“What this tells me is the economy has stabilized at a better rate than prior to Katrina,” Craig says. He is encouraged over figures that are still healthy after factoring out Katrina’s influence since September 2005. Also, easing off the Katrina bump instead of suddenly falling from it is another welcome development. “We’re hoping it stays with what it’s been doing in 2008.”

For 2007, consumers spent $7.54 billion, slightly up from $7.48 billion in 2006, according to sales tax figures for East Baton Rouge Parish. The figures don’t include vehicle sales. In Baton Rouge, where more than half of the spending occurs, retail sales rose .4% to $4.52 billion.

People are spending, but Johnson and Craig agree it’s hard to think recession when you’re seeing something entirely different.

“It would be hard for Baton Rouge to replace what New Orleans has to offer with tourism and Bourbon Street, but we are getting a different atmosphere,” Johnson says. “That will only help our state, and they’re so close to each other it’ll benefit everyone.”

Even Craig says growth is hard to argue with in a healthy economy.

“I see a lot of new restaurants going up and new construction,” he says. “Another big factor is our industrial sector and the use taxes they pay every month. There is a lot going on with East Baton Rouge Parish.”