BusinessReport.com

From all the wailing and moaning over the vanishing seniority in the congressional delegation, one would think Louisiana verges on losing its statehood. That Congressman Jim McCrery, R-Shreveport, does not plan to run again after 19 years’ service and 21-year veteran Richard Baker, R-Baton Rouge, has already abandoned his office for a high-paying lobbying gig would hurt more if Republicans were still in the majority.

The other silver lining is that Louisiana’s new lowly seniority status, unlike other national rankings in which the state trails, is not because of the ignorance, poverty or bad habits of its people, but rather the career choices of its leaders.

Even in the worst of times, however, there are winners, none more so potentially than Mary Landrieu and Woody Jenkins, the polarizing odd pair of 1996. Back then, all that separated them was vitriolic rhetoric and 5,788 votes in the state’s closest U.S. Senate race in modern times, won by Landrieu but only after a bitter post-election challenge by Jenkins. In Nix-onian fashion, three years later he was soundly defeated for commissioner of elections by Suzanne Terrell. His public life seemingly over, Jenkins’ political internment was warmly noted.

Over the past year, Landrieu looked close to joining him as national pundits deemed her the most vulnerable Senate Democrat up for re-election. It has taken just two months to reverse the fortunes of both.

With seniority the new watchword, the political class has realized that, without McCrery and Baker, Landrieu is the only unindicted member of the delegation with more than five years’ service in his or her current body.

In the new orphan state, she has assumed the role she grew up with in Moon and Verna Landrieu’s household, that of big sister.

That won’t stop Mary-haters here and in Washington from going after her. But many middle-of-the-road voters—those who decide elections—who didn’t have a compelling reason to be with Landrieu can be offered one now. Also, a lot of business people who are political contributors, even Republicans, are reconsidering how hard they will back GOP candidate Treasurer John Kennedy, or they are hedging their bets by writing checks to Landrieu, too. While she still is vulnerable, Landrieu’s allies are claiming that she is indispensable.

Over on the House side, Baker’s sudden departure upset the timetables of a new generation of potential candidates who thought he might serve another term—or at least finish this one. Instead, the hastily called March 8 primary election leaves little time for young Republican hopefuls to build their name recognition close to that of Jenkins, who for 28 years was Baton Rouge’s most outspoken state representative.

It further benefits Jenkins that only party members can vote in the closed Republican primary, and his base of religious conservatives and older voters should dominate the special election’s low turnout.

His apparent dominance has thinned the field of younger rivals, giving Jenkins a clear shot at securing the nomination in the first primary.

Less is sorted out on the Democratic side where two state representatives have declared, Don Cazayoux of New Roads and Michael Jackson of Baton Rouge. Jason Decuir, who lost a close state Senate election, is considering running. So is Andy Kopplin, until recently the director of the Louisiana Recovery Authority, who has seized upon the campaign promise of the year, pledging, “If I run, when my congressional career is over, I will not become a lobbyist.”

More could enter the race, which seems destined to go to a hard-fought second primary, leaving a perhaps battered Democratic nominee to face Woody Jenkins—grayed, rested and ready—in what promises to be a classic partisan showdown.

And then maybe a classic rematch. If the May 3 special election is close, the loser will have every reason to come back in November, when there will be a much bigger and different turnout for the presidential election.

That could make the soon-to-be elected congressman from the 6th District not only the least senior member of the House of Representatives, but also its most short-lived. Just our luck.