Even during good times, a financial planner is a little bit like a shrink.
“It’s always been psychology,” says Daryl Ellis of Ellis Insurance and Financial Group. While everyone knows in the abstract that you’re supposed to buy low and sell high, emotionally that’s hard for many people to do.
“It’s very much human nature. I want to buy in when it’s hot, after it’s made its returns, and I want to get out when it’s crashed,” he says. “Unfortunately, the average investor is always the last to get in and the first to get out.”
But when the sky seems to be falling, a financial adviser might need to hold the client’s hand a little more than usual. A common message: The market might be unpredictable from day to day or even year to year, but the long-term strategy doesn’t necessarily have to change.
“We certainly do spend, of late, the bulk of our time just sort of reassuring folks we’ve been here before,” Ellis says, arguing the market has always rebounded in the past. The downturn has been steeper than anyone expected, and people who had been planning to retire soon are re-evaluating that decision, but he says very few of his customers are panicking.
As the late economist and investor Ben Graham wrote, in the short term the stock market is nothing more than a voting machine, meaning a current price might not reflect the intrinsic value of an asset. Theoretically, when the market’s down, there are bargains out there. Miss out, and you’ll kick yourself later.
“On the flip side, this is a tremendous opportunity, and for those who have some powder that is dry sitting on the sidelines, we’re buying,” Ellis says. “How many times in history do you have a chance to come behind Warren Buffett and buy a company that he’s bought into for less than he bought into it? We’re seeing that today with GE and Goldman Sachs.”
Buffett put it this way in his recent New York Times op-ed: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Buffett says he’s been moving his own money from bonds to American equities.
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Marcel Dupré, president of Wealth Planners, sent out a series of e-mails to his clients, starting Sept. 29 after Washington’s first bailout attempt fell apart.
“The United States will survive this crisis as we have done over and over for the past 200 years in similar situations,” he wrote. “Hopefully we will quickly learn from our mistakes and then, like a phoenix from the ashes, we will emerge as a stronger and more resilient country.”
Dupré received a lot of panicky calls, e-mails and text messages from customers, mainly in mid-October when values were really dropping. Some clients just wanted to discuss their situation, and maybe vent a little. Many wondered whether they needed to pull out completely and convert their investments into cash. Dupré explains that recessions typically last about 14 months, and the stock market tends to be a leading indicator.
“This is a capitalist society, and we have a cycle,” he says. “Eventually, the recession will end, and before it ends, the stock market will probably start to rise back up. The problem with trying to sell at a period when it continues to go down is, when do you put the money back in? If you miss out on a day when the market is up 11% in one day, it’s very difficult to make up for that.”
It’s a little harder to explain to someone why their bond portfolio is down thanks to a fire sale from investors needing instant cash, since quality bonds tend to be fairly stable and stocks and bonds aren’t usually correlated. But Dupré says investors might actually be getting used to gloomy headlines and stomach-churning market drops.
“I think people have adjusted mentally to the down market,” Dupré says. “They’re finally to the point where they’re desensitized.” Or maybe they’ve just stopped opening their statements.
Advice column
Specific financial advice will, of course, vary with each investor’s financial picture, but here a few general tips you might consider from Marcel Dupré:
Sell low cost basis stocks: You might have been holding onto some individual stocks or other assets only because you were afraid to realize huge capital gains and trigger a big tax bill. Now you can probably sell most or all of these investments and reinvest the proceeds in mutual funds as capital gains taxes are expected to increase next year.
Convert IRAs to Roth IRAs: Tax rates will most likely be much higher in the near future, so having more money in a Roth could be a smart move. If you earn less than $100,000 a year and the conversion won’t increase your income above this number [every dollar converted is taxed at your ordinary income rate], then take advantage of the lower values of your accounts by doing a conversion. It is preferable to pay the taxes you owe on the conversion from money you have saved.
Rebalance: If you have a 401[k] or other account, you should take advantage of this buying opportunity in stocks. Also, you might want to slightly underweight your bond and cash holdings in the near future; coming out of a recession, there will likely be inflationary pressures that will be terrible for these assets. Real estate funds, or real estate in general, as well as high-quality stocks will probably do much better than bonds or cash.
Save and pay on debt: It might be a good time to make sure your financial house is in order by using these market-driven urges to save and pay off debts. Unfortunately, many people are yield shopping on money market funds, which is a waste of time in this temporary low-rate situation. The focus should be on having a nest egg of three to six months of income that is easily accessible and safe [such as a CD, money market or savings account], and on saving money beyond this in retirement accounts, taxable accounts and custodial accounts.
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