Photo by Brian Baiamonte
Bill Cassidy
For 22 years, Republican Richard Baker had a lock on Baton Rouge’s 6th Congressional District. There were challengers along the way, but every election night ended the same: Baker raising his arms in triumph.
Baker is gone, leaving Congress in February to run a hedge fund industry trade group, and so too, it seems, is the security that defined his term in office.
Don Cazayoux, a Democrat from New Roads, won a tough campaign in May to fill the remainder of Baker’s term. He goes before the voters again this fall seeking a full term but, according to several political strategists, Cazayoux’s stay in Washington, D.C. could be considerably shorter than his predecessor.
“The odds aren’t in his favor at the moment,” says one Democratic consultant.
That’s because Cazayoux not only faces a stronger Republican challenger in Dr. William Cassidy in this majority-Republican district, but he’s also got to deal with Democrat-turned-Independent Michael Jackson.
If predictions of Cazayoux’s demise are accurate, abbreviated stays in office and special elections will become the theme of the 6th District seat.
Well-liked by Republicans, Cassidy is in the first year of his first full term in the state Senate, having entered office through a special election in 2006 after Jay Dardenne left to become Secretary of State.
Jackson, a member of the state House since 1999, unsuccessfully ran for the congressional seat as a Democrat earlier this year. Upset by the lack of party support, Jackson, who argues the black vote is too often taken for granted by Democrats, is this time running as an Independent.
Advertisement | Advertising
With two candidates essentially chasing the Democratic vote, Cazayoux is hurt most by Jackson’s run, says Dr. Kirby Goidel, director of LSU’s Public Policy Research Lab. “With the national support Cassidy has, it was already going to be a tough race for Cazayoux,” Goidel says. “But throw Jackson in there, and it’s not difficult to picture Cazayoux as potentially a short-termer.”
Jackson’s presence also ensures a three-candidate November runoff, bringing the Barack Obama factor into play. The Democratic presidential nominee is expected to drive voter turnout, especially amongst Democrats, to historic highs. Cazayoux may be the only official Democrat on the ballot, but Jackson has high recognition numbers in the black community and some of his paid media tags him as an “independent Democrat.”
Which leaves the question: Will the black vote go with Cazayoux or Jackson?
Don Cazayoux
“It can go either way,” Goidel says. “That’s what makes this race an interesting one.”
Should either Cassidy or Jackson defeat Cazayoux [polls show Cassidy is the favorite though Jackson’s internal polling reveals a scenario in which he can win], that will prompt a special election to fill the unexpired term in the Senate or House.
If Cassidy wins, it will be up to Senate President Joel Chaisson to set the qualifying period and call the election. The task falls to Speaker of the House Jim Tucker should Jackson come out on top. A spokesman at the Secretary of State’s office said the first scheduled election date of 2009 is April 4. The question is whether that date is used for the primary or the runoff, though neither Chaisson nor Tucker is under an obligation to use that date.
Since the legislative session is scheduled to start in late April, it would make the most sense if the primary were called in early February with the runoff held on April 4. Doing that would allow the winner to be seated prior to the start of the regular session.
Of course, all of that is mute should Cazayoux hold onto his seat. Still, that hasn’t stopped early jockeying, particularly from those interested in filling Cassidy’s seat. Political analysts say Metro Council member David Boneno, who’s not seeking re-election to that office, freshman State Rep. Erich Ponti and longtime railroad lobbyist Carmack Blackmond have expressed interest in the seat.
For information on other races in the upcoming election, click the links below.
Comments
Post a comment
(Requires free registration.)