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When nasty attack ads aimed at Mayor Kip Holden began surfacing a full month before Labor Day, some were appalled that the mayor’s race had turned so ugly so early in the campaign season. But veteran political consultants had a different take on it.

“I think Kip’s re-election is a foregone conclusion,” Roy Fletcher says. “And the viciousness of that attack indicates just how foregone a conclusion it is.”

Indeed, the general consensus six weeks before the October primary is that Holden is a shoo-in. Analyst John Maginnis says Holden is in “good shape.” Pollster Bernie Pinsonat describes his campaign as being on “cruise control.” Consultant George Kennedy goes so far as to posit that “only if the world comes to an end” will the mayor’s re-election bid be derailed.

But while Holden’s re-election appears a virtual certainty at this point, his odds of avoiding a runoff are not as strong. Though he and his campaign team are predicting a primary victory, others are not so confident, noting that if he is forced into a runoff, he’ll have to mount a much more intense and expensive campaign.

That’s because a runoff would be held the same November day that voters will be deciding on Holden’s controversial $989 million bond proposal, which targets public safety, drainage, traffic and economic development.

“That’s going to be his biggest threat,” Maginnis says. “He certainly doesn’t want to be a runoff with the bond issue.”

For now, the Holden camp maintains it is unconcerned about such a possibility. The mayor is going into the four-man race with more than $400,000 in his war chest and near-record approval ratings of more than 80%. He also has the experienced campaign team of Marmillion/Gray advising him and producing his media.

By contrast, his opponents are all managing their own campaigns. So far, none has signed on with a big-name media consultant, and it’s anyone’s guess how much money any of them have raised. They won’t say—which could be interpreted as a sign that they don’t have much to brag about.

That’s not to say the three contenders are inexperienced in the art of campaigning. Former Metro Councilman Wayne Carter, whose until recently went by the nickname “Spider,” knows the ropes as well as anyone. A Republican, he has a strong base in the northern part of the city and parish and added name recognition from his failed bid for state agriculture commissioner last year. He has long been at odds with the Holden administration and has a strong campaign message that will resonate with certain voters.

“My campaign is about broken promises,” Carter says. “We have to fix our traffic, our drainage and reduce taxes—all the things Holden promised to do four years ago.”

Fellow Republican Dan Kyle is running on a similar platform. The former legislative auditor and current treasurer of the state GOP says he jumped into the race because little has changed in the past four years.

“The problems then were traffic, crime and education—all the things that we have now,” he says. “And now with the tax package, I feel we can move Baton Rouge forward without breaking the bank.”

Veteran political observers have mused over the candidacies of Carter and Kyle; the latter managed the former’s campaign for state agriculture commissioner last year. That such allies would now be foes in a race that’s considered a long shot for either of them has raised eyebrows. But both insist their only motive in entering the race is to serve the people of Baton Rouge.

“We’re good friends and good competitors, and I will run a completely different campaign from him,” Kyle says. “And may the best man win.”

Some believe the other Democrat candidate in the race stands the best chance of actually hurting Holden. Attorney Ronald Johnson is going after Holden’s base, the African-American voters he says the mayor has ignored in four years of pandering to the business community.

“I am of the opinion that if we’re going to ever allow Baton Rouge to become one, strong, vibrant community then we have to include all our constituents as partakers in that process,” Johnson says.

Fletcher believes that message will resonate with black voters.

“I think he is going to run strong,” Fletcher says. “In the African-American community, there are those who think that they may have been neglected by Kip.”

But will those doubts and voters be enough to force Holden into a runoff? Fletcher insists they will not. His campaign manager Rannah Gray explains why.

“We are planning to win on October 4,” she says. “The mayor has very high job performance ratings, and he has tremendous support from a broad, bipartisan base.”

That is certainly true. But the danger is that voters fed up with paying higher taxes could launch a protest vote against Holden’s bond initiative in the primary, especially if candidates like Kyle and Carter level their attacks at the tax proposal specifically, rather than on the mayor’s performance or personal business.

“The bond issue is sort of the X factor in all this,” Pinsonat says. “It’s obviously going to get killed in the white community, but it’s difficult to say what kind of effect it’s going to have on the race.”

Should it be enough to force Holden into a runoff, the second race would take on a decidedly different tone than the first. Holden would have to work hard to separate himself from the bond issue, lest voters vote down both the mayor and his signature proposal.

Working in his favor is the support of business leaders like Lane Grigsby. Not only is the owner of Cajun Constructors strongly backing the mayor once again, but he has decided of late to launch a serious effort to help promote the bond issue. Though he initially opposed the measure, he changed his mind after meeting with administration officials and realizing what the projects tied to the initiative would bring the city.

“But it’s going to be a tough sell,” Grigsby says. “The public doesn’t trust the politicians to do the right thing.”

But analysts believe in the end, they trust Holden enough to re-elect him—and probably by a wide margin. He’s a likable politician whose first administration was scandal-free. More importantly, Baton Rouge voters are pleased with the direction in which the city is heading—and the guy at the helm is the one who will benefit from it in the voting booth.

“The community feels good about itself and they feel like things are headed in the right direction,” Fletcher says. “Baton Rouge is growing up into a major city and people get a sense of that, and they credit the mayor with that.”

Playing dirty

Even by Louisiana standards, the attack-ad fliers against Mayor Kip Holden that appeared in local mailboxes earlier this month marked a new low. The mailer alleges Holden had an affair with a married woman and was beaten up by her husband. It includes an apparently doctored photo that purports to show the mayor sporting the black eye and busted lip he sustained in the row.

Considering it’s not even Labor Day yet, that’s got to be a record.

“It’s over the top,” says veteran political consultant George Kennedy. “It’s not the worst I’ve ever seen, but it’s definitely up there.”

While Holden is making much ado over getting to the bottom of who’s behind the smear campaign, the other three candidates in the race are maintaining a posture of indignation, and distancing themselves from the kind of dirty politics they say they could never condone.

“I haven’t gotten negative, and I don’t even want to go there,” Republican Dan Kyle says.

Democrat Ron Johnson says he’s going to stay focused on the issues.

Adds Republican Wayne Carter: “I’m disappointed because the mayor needs to be addressing issues, and this serves as a distraction.”

One would expect such sanctimony from the candidates. The more relevant question is: What are voters saying about it? If the experts are to be believed, they’re not impressed.

“I’m not sure anybody thinks it’s anybody’s business,” political consultant Roy Fletcher says. “It’s sort of like Bill Clinton; he was a good president, so nobody cares. It might be one thing if Kip had been a bad mayor, but he’s not.”

It helps that Holden has an outgoing, approachable demeanor that has endeared him to voters. He sees them when dancing at Live at Five and is frequently spotted enjoying the nightlife at other venues around town. Were he a holier-than-thou type, allegations of infidelity might resonate. Since he’s quite the opposite, they don’t stick.

“It’s kind of well known that Kip moves around the bars,” veteran political analyst John Maginnis says. “So I think people are really sort of laughing at this.”

Holden’s supporters are not laughing, however. They’re outraged, but also energized. Rannah Gray, who manages Holden’s campaign, says phones have been ringing off the hook in the two weeks since the fliers appeared. Several fundraisers have also been planned as a direct result of the attack ad.

“People are so mad, they’re trying to raise additional money for the campaign,” Gray says. “Our fundraising efforts have literally gone through the roof. It’s been like jet fuel.”

There’s no word yet on how much Holden’s campaign has netted from these increased fundraising efforts. But experts say the amount will likely grow, and that whatever ultimately comes of this first salvo in the race, it is guaranteed not to be the last.

Click here to see a chart of the candidates running against Holden.

For information on other races in the upcoming election, click the links below.

Metro Council

Capital Improvement Plan

U.S. Senate

6th Congressional District

District Attorney