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At the risk of being charged with the expansion of gambling—er, gaming—in our state, who wants to make a bet?

First the setup … Let’s say the mayor’s billion-dollar bond proposal passes at the polls in November [private polling data thus far shows close—but favorable—numbers for passage], meaning, among other things, homeowners will be hit for an additional 9.9 mills on their property taxes, providing said house is worth more than $75,000. For those counting at home, that’s an extra $22.69 per month [$272.25 annually] for a faux French Country worth $350,000, an extra $35.07 [$420.75] if the McMansion could fetch $500,000, or a measly $76.32 [$915.75] if only an estate worth a million will do.

OK, stick with me … Exactly four years from now, in 2012, our fabulous tax assessor, a non-Beach Boy by the name of Brian Wilson, will update the value of every piece of property in East Baton Rouge Parish. Even if Mr. Wilson does his typical less-than-accurate job, it’s safe to guess that property assessments will increase. It’s a soft market at the moment, so let’s say the increase is a pathetic 2% per year, or 8% over four years, meaning the faux French is worth $378,000, the McMansion goes for $540,000 and the estate jumps to $1.08 million.

We’re getting closer … As part of said reassessment, the 9.9 mills is—by law—reduced to a new millage figure so that the tax revenue collected in 2012 is equal to the amount collected in 2011, or the year prior to the new assessment. This is an important point to remember so let’s repeat it: The millage is reduced so that the tax revenue is equal to the figure collected in 2011—not the amount collected the year the tax was first passed, in this case 2008.

Why is this important? Well, despite what the Census Bureau says, Mayor Holden and almost every other official says we’re really in a growth spurt and that our population is surging. If they’re right, that means more people are moving in, buying houses and paying property taxes. Those new people prompt new businesses to open and they start paying property taxes too. In short, the amount of revenue generated by the 9.9 mill tax increases every year so long as house sales prices and population figures increase.

Put another way, the tax revenue increases to handle the demands of growth, unless inflation or costs rise faster—or the tax assessor doesn’t accurately assess values.

Down the stretch we come … While the law demands millages be rolled back, our crafty legislators gave taxing authorities [BREC, EBR School Board, Library Board, Metro Council, etc.] the ability to roll forward the millages to collect even more tax revenue [without a vote of the people], provided the new millage does not exceed the number originally approved by voters. In other words, if the bond issue’s new millage in 2012 is rolled back to 9.1 mills, the Metro Council can accept the new number or increase it to any millage rate it desires between 9.1 mills and 9.9 mills.

Of course, in Baton Rouge it’s always an all-or-nothing deal. And, of course, in Baton Rouge the millages are pretty much always rolled forward to the original rate.

So, here’s the bet … Four years from now, I say Mayor Holden, or his new second-term right-hand man Mike Futrell, will go before the Metro Council and plead with these legislators to roll the bond millage forward to the full 9.9 mills, citing soaring labor and material costs and the urgent need to keep pace with growth in our parish. Council members will complain and grandstand before giving the mayor what he wants.

Meaning Mr. Faux French Country, assuming he hasn’t sold, will now pay $25 per month [$299.97 annually] toward the bond issue, Ms. McMansion now ponies up $38.37 [$460.35] and Mr. and Mrs. Estate are popped for $82.92 [$994.95].

Don’t misunderstand—I’m not picking on the mayor’s plan or speaking out against it [I did say it passed, right?], but you need to know how these taxes work.

I’m willing to put up a bottle of Pinot Noir.

Wanna accept the bet?