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Gregory Rigamer of GCR and Associates predicts New Or-leans’ population to peak at roughly 350,000 by the time the U.S. Census releases its official population estimates in 2010. That would be about 23% less than what the Crescent City enjoyed in the month prior to Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Of course, that percentage is spread out all around the country and world, but no other municipality has done more to hype their growth from the diaspora than Baton Rouge.

Rebuilding hadn’t even kicked off yet two years ago when politicos and pundits started predicting a power shift to the Capital City. Since a large majority of evacuees landed in the city—various surveys peg the increase at 100,000, with a present population possibly nearing 325,000—it was assumed that Red Stick would likewise gain more seats in the state Legislature. For now, it’s all speculation, but interests are coalescing in the sister cities to either defend turf or take advantage of the situation.

To be certain, the Big Easy will show a decrease in population, but the beneficiaries are largely unknown. Moreover, New Orleans isn’t ready to give up without a fight. Among others, Democratic Mayor Ray Nagin argues that people are moving back at a quicker pace than is generally accepted, based partly on so-called mailbox and utility counts, which might or might not be used in the coming census. The problem with this methodology is simple: Just because someone is receiving mail or energy doesn’t mean they’re living in the city.

Elliot Stonecipher, a Shreveport demographer and political analyst, says New Orleans officials are fighting back aggressively by tracking these unconventional counts. There’s also the question of what property owners plan to do in the coming years, whether stay or sell, as Louisiana still suffers from an outmigration trend that started long before Katrina. “In any case, the stage is certainly set for New Orleans officials to challenge the census with any reported population significantly lower,” Stonecipher says. “When cities lose population, they kick and scream and holler and challenge. We’ve seen northern cities like Shreveport do it, and sometimes they’re successful.”

The Capital City, meanwhile, is positioning itself just as aggressively for the gains. The Baton Rouge Area Chamber has converted many of its initiatives into regional approaches, and the Baton Rouge Area Foundation is spending as much as $1 million to brand and promote the Interstate 10/Interstate 12 corridor. A new magazine, published by Business Report’s parent company, will seek to do the same. There’s an undercurrent running through all of these initiatives, and it appears to be a very real competition to help Baton Rouge become the focus of power in Louisiana. In short, it’s all about Baton Rouge seizing the moment.

Sen. Sharon Weston Broome, a Democrat and the dean of Baton Rouge’s legislative delegation, says the city is being proactive, and the potential growth, which could possibly spur an increase in local dollars and infrastructure, is prompting the region to finally work as a cohesive unit. “I think that’s the goal right now in Baton Rouge,” Broome says. “We want to build upon the regional model and leverage what we have that way.”

It’s an astute strategy, and much safer than relying on Baton Rouge proper to carry the load. House Clerk Alfred W. “Butch” Speer, who has arguably been involved with more redistricting plans than most elected legislators, says regionalism will be vital if the local delegation wants real power, since most of the substantial increases in the area are attributed to places like Ascension and Livingston. Additionally, Northshore areas like St. Tammany and Tangipahoa have more than toppled their pre-Katrina statistics. “There’s a lot of speculation around the state right now about who is going to gain, but it’s just that: speculation,” Speer says. “We really don’t even know if Baton Rouge has grown any. It may only gain a seat or two.”

That’s roughly the same prediction offered up by Rep. Michael Jackson, a Red Stick Dem who will serve his final term in the House next year. “It’s hard to say, since redistricting is still a good ways down the road,” he says, “but if the numbers hold, I think we could gain one seat in the Senate and maybe one or two in the House.”

But more important than the size of delegation, Jackson adds, is its influence over the process. Broome says she is actively campaigning for the Senate pro tem job, the upper chamber’s No. 2 post, and Jackson could potentially end up heading the budget-drafting appropriations committee or health and welfare. Rep. Mack A. “Bodi” White Jr., of Denham Springs is also seen as a top contender for a committee chairmanship, and Rep. Hunter Greene of Baton Rouge would be the envy of every lawmaker in the state if he maintains his seat on the House and Governmental Affairs Committee, which is where the redistricting process beings. Greene has also thrown his hat in the ring for House speaker. Both Greene and White are Republicans.

And then there’s the question of whether the Baton Rouge delegation can sit down together at the same table on a regular basis and agree on an agenda. The group has developed a reputation in recent years for its acrimonious divides, lone wolves and splintered approaches. While delegations housing members from Jefferson, Orleans and Terrebonne-Lafourche leveraged their combined strengths, Baton Rouge floundered. It hasn’t officially met in more than a year and has functioned without a chairperson for even longer, although both Jackson and Greene are interested in the job.

Broome says that way of thinking is a thing of the past and many members are interested in building the coalition back up and including the outlying areas. The band of politicos might even start meeting again. “I and a few others have vowed to take on that initiative. I can assure you that it will take place. That is one of my first orders of business in the new term. I will do everything in my power to expedite meetings. I’m very optimistic that the regional delegation will be moving forward.”

Jackson agrees. “We’re fostering a working relationship, and we’re getting along and we all trust each other. That hurdle has been crossed, and I think we have a real opportunity for something different here.”

Next summer, Louisiana will receive its official intermediate estimates for the period through July of this year, which should offer a decent precursor of what’s to come. But until then, it’s anybody’s guess.

“Things in New Orleans are turning around, and people appear to be spending money,” says West Bank Rep. Jim Tucker of Terrytown, chair of the GOP Caucus. “I don’t think we’ll be down as far as originally thought, but there’s little doubt that New Orleans will be down and Baton Rouge will be up. As far as how that plays out, we’ll just have to wait.”