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Term limits, the 2005 hurricanes and bids for other elected offices have completely altered the makeup of Baton Rouge’s legislative caucus, and the shift could become more prominent based on the results of last month’s runoffs.

In the House, there will be five new faces among the 11 members. In the Senate, four local seats will remain with incumbents while another is in limbo. The delegation has long had a reputation for not being on the same page or organizing behind a singular effort, but that disconnect is likely to end as the new blood is infused and old-timers jockey for the role of chairman.

To be certain, the gig will be an influential one to have, thanks to reapportionment. The current crop of lawmakers taking office next year will be charged with redistricting following the 2010 nationwide census. By most accounts, seats will likely be pulled from the hardest-hit areas by Hurricane Katrina, like New Orleans, and shifted to cities, like Baton Rouge, that took on a substantial number of new resident-evacuees. It’s massive power shift that could bring a variety of perks to the local delegation.

But for now, there are the runoffs, and until those are decided, the delegation will not be whole. Here’s a quick rundown of how those races have been developing in the weeks leading up to the final contest.

Vote early, vote often

It’s all about GOTV (Get Out the Vote) organizations in Senate District 14, which isn’t surprising considering Sen. Cleo Fields, a Democrat, long held the seat before being pushed out by term limits—and the courts. Fields is often credited with building one of Louisiana’s premier voting blocs and using it to help elect a variety of statewide candidates. His chosen pol in the all-Dem runoff is Rep. Yvonne Dorsey, speaker pro tem of the House. But newcomer Jason DeCuir, a local attorney, has turned the competition into an all-out brawl.

Dorsey led the four-person primary with 11,398 votes to DeCuir’s 9,915. With only 1,483 votes separating the two, all eyes turned to third-place challenger Willis Reed Sr., a Republican who owns The Baton Rouge Post and garnered roughly 2,000 votes in the runoff. For his part, Willis has endorsed DeCuir and plans to feature the candidate in an upcoming issue of his community newspaper.

Still, Dorsey has Fields’ machine behind her, which is political fodder more than anything else these days. Granted, the operation helps out with signage and canvassers, and there are a fleet of vehicles used to move people to the polls, but DeCuir had his own vans on the roads on Election Day and made an impressive showing. Additionally, DeCuir led a registration drive in white portions of the district that targeted new residents brought into the area by Katrina. White conservatives, whether Republican and Democrat, are expected to make the difference in this election.

Fields, meanwhile, hasn’t been able to sustain his track record in recent years, as evidenced by the last two governor’s races. In 2003, he backed failed candidate Buddy Leach. This year, he backed Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell, who came in third with 25% of the vote in Fields’ own district. “Cleo’s machine just isn’t what it used to be,” Reed says. “I think he’s going to regret getting involved in this race.”

In neighboring House District 68, a GOP stronghold, health care lobbyist Kyle Ardoin and former LSU athletic department official Steve Carter are fighting it out in what should be another close race. Third-place finisher Jay Lyles, a 27-year-old newcomer, is backing Carter, but Ardoin has the support of traditional Democratic forces in the area. That he was formerly a Democrat himself before turning Republican helps with his creds in the few African-American communities that make up the mostly white-collar district and, in the end, could be a deciding factor.

Along with other activists, Joe Delpit, a Baton Rouge political consultant and organizer who formerly served as speaker pro tem and a floor leader under former Democratic Gov. Edwin Edwards, distributed gold ballots during the Oct. 20 primary election that endorsed only one Republican legislative candidate: Ardoin. A phone number offering rides to the polls was also listed on the sample ballot, a service Delpit says is paid for with his own money and volunteer services. “We never had any communication with the Ardoin campaign,” he says. “I just think he’s the right guy for the job.”

In the primary, Ardoin, a former member of the West Baton Rouge Parish School Board, carried 41% of the vote to Carter’s 39%, outpacing him by roughly 300 votes. Lyles gleaned 2,700 from the local electorate. Delpit says there will likely be another effort on behalf of candidates like Ardoin by his group of community activists during the runoff election as well. With Gov.-elect Bobby Jindal, a Republican, and his coattails, off the November ballot, Democratic turnout will be a force in House District 68.

Talkin’ smack on TV

House District 69 pits former Entergy spokesman Bill Benedetto against businessman Erich Ponti. It was an all-Republican

primary, and television separated the top two finishers from the rest of the pack. They spent plenty on it, which is counterintuitive to the cash other races have unloaded on direct mail and GOTV. While reporters have been handed opposition research on both candidates, largely right before the primary election, none of the mud has surfaced in the mainstream media because of legal complexities.

Thus far, the only controversial nugget from the race arose when the chamber’s Future PAC endorsed Benedetto over Ponti and his seemingly pro-business record. Despite endorsing more than one candidate in other races, the local chamber singled out only Benedetto in this district.

Ponti led the primary with 5,370 votes, or 32%, to Benedetto’s 4,619 and 28%. In an odd move, third-place finisher Brian McNabb, a former Bush appointee, and fourth-place candidate Bob Thibodeaux, a local businessman, are backing both Benedetto and Ponti. A close runoff is expected and many voices are staying quiet on this contest until poll numbers show a clear winner.

Christopher Ingram, formerly a consultant for McNabb who no longer has a financial interest in the race, says television may or may not continue to play a role in the contest, but it will have to turn ugly sooner or later. “I think Benedetto is going to have to go negative to shake votes off of Ponti,” he says.

In another battle of the airwaves, Metro Councilman Pat Culbertson and lawyer Franklin Foil will face off in House District 70. The primary for this race was loaded down with attacks on Culbertson. Most notably, a spot was crafted arguing that Culbertson supported a tax for every flush of the toilet in Baton Rouge—depicted by a whirling bowl and Culbertson’s mug. The ad and other related activities have been paid for by a political action committee called Our Louisiana, which is independently backing Foil. Lane Grigsby, founder and chairman of Cajun Contractors, is among the top donors with more than $61,000 contributed.

Buddy Amoroso, former chairman of the TaxBusters election group and a member of Baton Rouge’s Alcohol Beverage Control Board, says labeling Culbertson as “pro-tax” may have indeed been a political stretch, but the councilman rebounded by paying for commercials where his wife explained the fee to voters. “I think having his wife on TV was what put Culbertson, surprisingly, in first place. But I think it’s going to become harder for both candidates to keep buying television, and you may see more direct mail.”

Despite the pummeling he received on local television, Culbertson nearly won the three-person primary outright with 7,471 votes, or 49%. Foil trailed behind with 40%, or 6,213 votes. Third-place finisher Aidan Reynolds notched 1,710 votes, or 11%.

As for institutional backing, the political arm of the Louisiana Association of Business and Industry has officially endorsed Foil and channeled money into his campaign through its EASTPAC. He also has the support of the Baton Rouge Area Chamber of Commerce’s Future PAC, Louisiana State Medical Society’s PAC Louisiana Medical Committee and the Capital Region Home Builders Association.

In House District 67, a solidly Democratic and African-American district, Metro Councilmember Lorri Burgess came out of the primary with only 39%, leading East Baton Rouge Parish School Board President Pat Smith by less than 200 votes. It has been a low-profile race thus far, and more of the same is expected—with no more attention given to marketing and GOTV than what was spent in the primary. Predominately black boxes were split in the primary and the majority white areas are expected to lean more towards Smith.

The runoff elections for all of these races are scheduled for Saturday, Nov. 17.