Getting hitched

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Rudy Giuliani is the tough guy who guided New York through the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

As U.S. attorney, he faced off against the mob and eventually imprisoned three of the city’s four major bosses. As mayor, he booted the smut merchants from Times Square and slashed the city’s crime rate.

He’s Eliot Ness reincarnated. John Wayne with a Noo Yawk accent. It’s no wonder he’s one of the Republican Party’s presidential candidates. What’s not to like?

Plenty, for conservatives. That’s why hard-liners are questioning Giuliani’s ambitions. He’s sideways on key traditional Republican issues—abortion, gay rights and gun control—and he doesn’t fit into the evangelical formula crafted by President Bush and political consultant Karl Rove.

Despite those obstacles, the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg all-GOP poll shows Giuliani (near right) clocking in at 29%, compared to 15% for former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee—who’s not even in the race—and 12% for Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

Two of Louisiana’s top conservative voices—U.S. Rep. Charles Boustany of Lafayette and U.S. Sen. David Vitter (far right) of Metairie—have officially endorsed Giuliani, with caveats that they support the man but not necessarily his message. And a lot of Cajun Catholics in South Louisiana and fundamentalists farther north aren’t happy.

“I’m disappointed and outraged,” says the Rev. Gene Mills, executive director of Louisiana Family Forum, an epicenter for Christian public policy work. “Boustany and Vitter ran on a pro-life platform with traditional values and built a constituency based on those beliefs. Rudy hasn’t stood on those platforms.

“[The endorsement] was premature and ill-advised. The whole race could implode at any time.”

Why would Boustany and Vitter, who is Giuliani’s campaign chairman for southern states, take such a leap? They’d better hope the payoff is worth the gamble, waging their reputations on a Big Apple Republican maverick.

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During the past two election cycles, Louisiana’s GOP congressional delegation has been a one-horse bunch. They were loyal to President Bush, backing him wholeheartedly and without fear. With no vice president in the field and no heir apparent, this is a different race.

Congressmen Jim McCrery of Shreveport and Rodney Alexander of Quitman have endorsed former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the Mormon who recently cleared $23 million in the latest election cycle compared to Giuliani’s $15 million.

While Richard Baker of Baton Rouge has yet to place his bet, gubernatorial candidate Bobby Jindal of Kenner could stay away from the track altogether.

“The campaign I’m focused on is my campaign to bring Louisiana voters the fresh start for our state they’re demanding,” Jindal says.

Baker, however, could make an endorsement later this year. He has taken several meetings with Romney, according to spokesperson Michael DiResto, but is “very interested” in Thompson’s possible candidacy and has a face-to-face meeting scheduled. Baker largely has reserved judgment because none of the candidates has detailed agendas.

“He feels good that he hasn’t jumped out there at a time when you could see the emergence of a candidate like Fred Thompson,” DiResto says.

That polls are already lining up one year from Louisiana’s primary and 19 months from the election isn’t unusual, given the political climate. There’s a potential windfall from jumping in early and securing a spot at the table during policy development.

It remains a risky gambit, especially if a campaign disintegrates or starts to flounder. Boustany and Vitter now are at the mercy of that double-edged sword. There’s still a developing field of Republican candidates grabbing headlines, and one of the frontrunners will surely be gone by year’s end—just around the time regret becomes the name of the game for those who endorsed too early.

When Giuliani’s dirty laundry—from his three marriages to public appearances in drag—has a fresh airing below the Mason-Dixon line, voters might not like what they see. Such negativity could rub off on Boustany and Vitter, says Florida pollster and political consultant Jim Kitchens.

“I personally think they are making an early tactical and strategic political error on both of their parts,” Kitchens says. “His [Giuliani’s] social issues are not going to play well in the Deep South.”

Mills says the conservative base in Louisiana will not budge on the issues. That’s especially dangerous for Boustany, whose Acadiana swing district traditionally doesn’t share the same social priorities as Giuliani. Vitter caters to the same conservative demographic, only on a statewide scale.

What’s in it for them? For starters, they would have a close relationship with a Giuliani White House, and there could be leadership roles in the House or Senate. There are ambassadorships, party gigs; the list goes on.

Vitter stands to gain the most. While it sounds a bit lofty, there’s increased chatter that he’d be a possible vice-presidential candidate on a Giuliani ticket. “I don’t think it’s completely ridiculous to consider that,” Kitchens says. “You have a northern mayor who has municipal

experience, so you need a balance from someone who has been in Washington, is from the South and could offer solid conservative credentials.”

Politically, the call could be a major coup for Vitter and Boustany—if Giuliani survives the primaries and earns the Republican nomination. On the flip side, their experiment of mixing ideologies could prove disastrous, especially as voters continue to be polarized, and only a few percentage points are now deciding many elections.

The elephant is known for its storied memory, but in the case of Vitter and Boustany, they better hope Louisiana Republicans have a hard time recalling this election cycle if the Giuliani train derails. “There are social conservatives that will never forget this,” Mills says.


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