Scott predicts national recession, but says Louisiana will add jobs

The dreaded “R” word is in Loren Scott’s 27th Louisiana Economic Outlook, although he says it should be “a relatively shallow national recession lasting about one year.” Scott presented the report at the BizTech Expo's Top 100 Luncheon today.

He expects that Louisiana will have near level job growth next year and gain 28,400 jobs in 2010. “It looks like we’ll be lucky and get through this recession without losing jobs, but it’ll be a close call,” Scott says. “We want to emphasize there is a high level of uncertainty this year in the forecast because we’ve never dealt with a recession with a credit freeze behind it.”

According to Scott’s metro area projections:

-- The Baton Rouge area’s planned $6.5 billion in new construction promises 2,400 jobs next year and 6,800 in 2010. “It won’t be great growth, but at least it’ll be growth.”

-- The New Orleans area will be hardest hit with 3,000 jobs lost next year. It will gain 6,000 jobs in 2010.

-- The Shreveport-Bossier area will lose 2,100 jobs in durable goods manufacturing next year but gain 2,500 jobs in 2010.

-- Higher energy prices will keep Houma and Lafayette growing. They are expected to gain 1,800 to 2,800 jobs next year and 2,400 to 3,200 jobs in 2010. --Anna Thibodeaux

To read more about Scott's forecast, click here.

Fed, central banks cut rates to aid world economy

In a rare coordinated move, the Federal Reserve and other major central banks from around the world slashed interest rates Wednesday to prevent a mushrooming financial crisis from becoming a global economic meltdown. Markets retreated, though, on worries that the move was too little, too late. The Fed reduced its key rate from 2% to 1.5%. In Europe, which also has been hard hit by the financial crisis, the Bank of England cut its rate by half a point to 4.5% and the European Central Bank sliced its rate by half a point to 3.75%.

"The recent intensification of the financial crisis has augmented the downside risks to growth," the Fed said in explaining the coordinated action, the latest in a series of bold moves meant to pry open tight lending and revive the global economy. The Dow Jones industrials, already down 875 points this week, fell another 150, and all the major indexes were down sharply. The Fed's action will reduce borrowing costs almost immediately for U.S. bank customers whose home equity and other floating-rate loans are tied to the prime interest rate. Bank of America, Wells Fargo and other banks cut their prime rate by half a point to 4.5% after the Fed announcement.

Bayou Postillion: oil and gas vs. environmentalists

State officials consider Bayou Postillion, in eastern Iberia Parish, to be the model project for water quality in the Atchafalaya Basin. Three years ago, the Department of Natural Resources’ Atchafalaya Basin Program cleared a sedimented three-mile stretch of the bayou to improve water quality and provide navigability to fishermen and crawfishermen. But the most vocal critics of the project maintain that Bayou Postillion was really dredged to facilitate barge traffic, benefiting the family that owned land along the bayou. Some state officials call the project a necessary tradeoff in which the positives outweigh the negatives. However, voters will have the chance to decide the fate of similar basin projects at the polls on Nov. 4.

Read the Business Report cover story about the project here. Send comments to editors@businessreport.com.

Gingrich, Jindal to participate in B.R. healthcare discussion

Newt Gingrich, former House Speaker and founder of the Center for Health Transformation, will be the keynote speaker Oct. 22 at a luncheon at the Holiday Inn Select to honor the 20th anniversary of the Pennington Biomedical Research Center. Sponsored by the Pennington Medical Foundation, Louisiana Hospital Association, LifeScan, and the Baton Rouge Business Report, the private event will highlight Pennington’s major impact in Louisiana.

A separate event, a forum titled “Creating a 21st Century Intelligent Health System in Louisiana,” immediately following the luncheon will include four panels. The first discussion at 1:30 p.m. will feature Gingrich and Gov. Bobby Jindal. The invitation-only event is sponsored by the Center for Health Transformation, Baton Rouge Business Report and several national sponsors.

Anytime Fitness coming to downtown

Anytime Fitness has leased 4,300 square feet of space downtown and plans to open a 24-hour gym early next year. Brad Way, an agent with NAI/Latter & Blum, who represented the landlord, says the gym will lease space on the first floor of the Government Street office building currently occupied by Remson Haley Herpin Architects. Remson Haley and a law firm will remain on the second floor. "They should start building out the first floor soon," Way says. Anytime Fitness has more than 10 locations in the Capital Region, members have a keycard that allows them 24-hour access to a gym. --Timothy Boone

Trahan picked to design Colorado Springs church

Trahan Architects has been selected to design a new home for the First Presbyterian Church of Colorado Springs, which has the fifth-largest congregation in the entire denomination. Trahan beat out 25 other architects to win the contract, in a statement Rev. Jim Singleton says the firm was selected because of its record of building beautiful and contemplative spaces for worship. The 5,000-member church has been planning a new building for a while; in 1998 the congregation bought an entire city block east of the existing church. Trahan will unveil the design in December.

Poll: Majority say economic crisis won't affect bond issue vote

Eighty percent of respondents to a Daily Report poll says the national economic downturn won't affect how they vote on next month's $989 million capital improvements project. But those voters were basically split on the issue. Forty percent say they weren't going to vote for the plan anyway, nine more votes than the 40% who say they will vote for the measure. Twelve percent say the slumping national economy has caused them to rethink their vote, while 8% are undecided. Nearly 2,000 people participated in the survey.

Today's question: Who won last night's presidential debate?

News roundup: State unemployment funds drying up...Pending home sales rise in August...Time for LSU-South Carolina game won't be announced until Sunday

Increased claims draining governments: Rising jobless rates are putting a strain on state unemployment systems, reports Stateline.org. Revenues are being drained from state treasuries, and state governments are having a hard time paying benefits to people out of work. The magazine says unemployment insurance trust funds are in danger of insolvency in California, Michigan, Missouri, New York, Ohio, South Carolina and Wisconsin. All of those states have unemployment rates greater than Louisiana... Buyers take advantage of low home prices, interest rates: Pending home sales increased by 8.8% nationally in August, reaching their highest level since June 2007. The biggest gains were seen in the West, which has been hardest hit by the housing slump. According to the National Association of Realtors, which released the information, the figures were boosted by the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which loosened some credit standards. The boost may be temporary because of the credit crisis that made borrowing money difficult in September... All depends on how the Tigers and Vandy fare: ESPN won't determine if it will broadcast the Oct. 18 LSU-South Carolina or the Vanderbilt-Georgia football game until Sunday. The game that the cable sports network doesn't pick for its national 7 p.m. game will be aired regionally at 11:30 a.m. by Raycom Sports. CBS has decided to show the Ole Miss-Alabama game for its national afternoon broadcast. ESPN's decision will probably be heavily based on how LSU does against Florida this Saturday and if Vanderbilt beats Mississippi State to remain undefeated.